15.08.2026 17:30
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Referee: Leandro Rey Hilfer
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Union Santa Fe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
18'
I. Malcorra ↔ M. Luna Diale
Union Santa Fe
🟨
20'
Lucas Menossi
Union Santa Fe
🔄
27'
J. Mosqueira ↔ E. Giaccone
Union Santa Fe
🟨
45+2'
Rodrigo Auzmendi
San Lorenzo
🟨
45+2'
Maizon Rodriguez
Union Santa Fe
🔄
46'
L. Vargas ↔ J. Pintado
Union Santa Fe
🔄
55'
J. Alvarez ↔ G. del Prete
San Lorenzo
64'
R. Auzmendi
San Lorenzo
🟨
75'
Juan Pablo Ludueña
Union Santa Fe
🔄
78'
C. Tarragona ↔ E. Ramirez
Union Santa Fe
🔄
78'
L. Menossi ↔ M. Aguirre
Union Santa Fe
🟨
82'
Emilio Giaccone
Union Santa Fe
VAR
87'
Matias Reali
San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo vs Union Santa Fe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.2%
-
BTTS No
55%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 1-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 52.2%
Draw 13.4%
Union Santa Fe Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.11
Union Santa Fe1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
22 GF / 20 GA
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe
WLDWL
33 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
0.96
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
8
BTTS Yes
13
4
Over 2.5
12
3.62
Shots on Goal
5.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 23 matches
Union Santa Fe Union Santa Fe 24 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Union Santa Fe
7 Wins 8
9 Draws 7
7 Losses 9
22 Goals For 33
20 Goals Against 32
0.96 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
8 BTTS Yes 13
11 Over 1.5 20
4 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 7
3.62 Shots On Goal 5.23
10.43 Total Shots 16.18
3.76 Corners 5.09
49.8% Ball Possession 49.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Union Santa Fe's more proactive style and San Lorenzo's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Union Santa Fe in 4-1-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Union Santa Fe having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. San Lorenzo have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Union Santa Fe. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo sit 7 with 22 points after 16 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 14:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Rodrigo Auzmendi (3 goals), Ezequiel Herrera (1 goals), Alexis Cuello (1 goals), with creative support from Matias Reali (1 assists), Facundo Gulli (1 assists), Nahuel Barrios (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Union Santa Fe Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Union Santa Fe have collected 21 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 24:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Cristian Tarragona (2 goals), Marcelo Estigarribia (2 goals), Lucas Menossi (2 goals), with creative support from Julián Palacios (3 assists), Cristian Tarragona (1 assists), Lautaro Vargas (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 5 times, Union Santa Fe won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 4-4-2 / Union Santa Fe 4-1-3-2
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 5, draws 7, Union Santa Fe wins 2

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase