28.07.2026 22:00
Estadio Pedro Bidegain
Referee: F. Echenique
San Lorenzo
Match Timeline
Gimnasia M.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
F. Gulli ↔ N. Barrios
San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
G. Alassia ↔ J. Rattalino
San Lorenzo
🔄
46'
D. Mondino ↔ L. Carrera
Gimnasia M.
🟨
52'
Matias Recalde
Gimnasia M.
🔄
59'
A. Ladstatter ↔ G. Rodriguez
San Lorenzo
🟨
69'
Julian Ceballos
Gimnasia M.
🔄
70'
I. Sabatini ↔ L. Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
🔄
70'
J. Ceballos ↔ U. Sanchez
Gimnasia M.
🔄
70'
A. Modica ↔ V. Simoni
Gimnasia M.
🟨
75'
Luciano Cingolani
Gimnasia M.
🟨
84'
Facundo Lencioni
Gimnasia M.
🔄
84'
E. Fernandez ↔ B. Armoa
Gimnasia M.
86'
R. Auzmendi · Assist: G. Rodriguez
San Lorenzo
🔄
89'
E. Herrera ↔ G. Corujo
San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo vs Gimnasia M. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.2%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Lorenzo Win 73.2%
Draw 6.6%
Gimnasia M. Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Lorenzo1.12
Gimnasia M.0.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Lorenzo San Lorenzo
WWDLW
21 GF / 17 GA
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M.
WLDWL
15 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
0.83
0.85
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
8
BTTS Yes
8
4
Over 2.5
6
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Lorenzo San Lorenzo 20 matches
Gimnasia M. Gimnasia M. 18 matches
San Lorenzo Statistic Gimnasia M.
6 Wins 6
9 Draws 5
5 Losses 7
21 Goals For 15
17 Goals Against 22
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 0.83
0.85 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
8 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 9
4 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
10 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 6
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.71
10.17 Total Shots 10.82
3.78 Corners 3.24
48.8% Ball Possession 42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gimnasia M.. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Lorenzo expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Gimnasia M. in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gimnasia M. having the stronger overall control.

San Lorenzo Analysis

San Lorenzo sit 7 with 22 points after 16 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 14:14 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Cuello (4 goals), G. Rodriguez (2 goals), L. Vietto (2 goals), with creative support from A. Cuello (3 assists), Facundo Gulli (3 assists), M. De Ritis (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gimnasia M. Analysis

Gimnasia M. sit 11 with 19 points after 16 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 14:22 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Agustín Modica (4 goals), E. Munoz (2 goals), F. Lencioni (2 goals), with creative support from F. Lencioni (5 assists), I. Sabatini (2 assists), S. Rodriguez (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, San Lorenzo won 2 times, Gimnasia M. won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:0 from San Lorenzo's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2 / Gimnasia M. 4-3-3
H2H summary: San Lorenzo wins 2, draws 0, Gimnasia M. wins 0

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W W L D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
W L W D W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
L D D D L
Knockout Phase