🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
27.09.2026 02:30
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San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.2%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
San Jose Earthquakes Win 45.2%
Draw 21%
Portland Timbers Win 33.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
San Jose Earthquakes1.76
Portland Timbers1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes
WWDLW
53 GF / 44 GA
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers
WLDWL
55 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.77
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.84
18
BTTS Yes
23
17
Over 2.5
22
5.04
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 31 matches
Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 31 matches
San Jose Earthquakes Statistic Portland Timbers
15 Wins 10
6 Draws 7
10 Losses 14
53 Goals For 55
44 Goals Against 57
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.77
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.84
18 BTTS Yes 23
24 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 22
14 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 7
5.04 Shots On Goal 4.42
13.15 Total Shots 13.38
6.19 Corners 4.77
47.8% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features San Jose Earthquakes's more proactive style and Portland Timbers's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with San Jose Earthquakes expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Portland Timbers in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Portland Timbers having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Portland Timbers. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

San Jose Earthquakes Analysis

San Jose Earthquakes arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 41 points after 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 44:36 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Preston Judd (11 goals), Timo Werner (4 goals), Ousseni Bouda (4 goals), with creative support from Niko Tsakiris (7 assists), Beau Leroux (5 assists), Paul Marie (4 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Portland Timbers Analysis

Portland Timbers sit 8 with 32 points after 25 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, while the 47:47 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Kevin Kelsy (9 goals), K. Velde (6 goals), C. Bassett (3 goals), with creative support from David Pereira da Costa (7 assists), K. Velde (5 assists), C. Bassett (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, San Jose Earthquakes won 6 times, Portland Timbers won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from San Jose Earthquakes's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79%)
Predicted formations: San Jose Earthquakes 3-4-2-1 / Portland Timbers 4-3-3
H2H summary: San Jose Earthquakes wins 6, draws 2, Portland Timbers wins 7

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)