BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Lourival Gomes
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Match Timeline
CFRJ / Maricá
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Pablo Thomaz
CFRJ / Maricá
65'
Elias
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
🟥
89'
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Sampaio Corrêa RJ

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Win 63.5%
Draw 10.3%
CFRJ / Maricá Win 26.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sampaio Corrêa RJ1.09
CFRJ / Maricá0.97
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ
WWDLW
6 GF / 8 GA
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá
WLDWL
6 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
3
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Sampaio Corrêa RJ 7 matches
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá 7 matches
Sampaio Corrêa RJ Statistic CFRJ / Maricá
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 4
6 Goals For 6
8 Goals Against 10
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
3 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 4
2 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors CFRJ / Maricá. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward CFRJ / Maricá having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. CFRJ / Maricá arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Sampaio Corrêa RJ Analysis

Placed 4 with 8 points from 7 outings, Sampaio Corrêa RJ continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

CFRJ / Maricá Analysis

With 7 points from 7 games and a place of 5, CFRJ / Maricá still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 6:10, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Lucas Sibito (2 goals), Pablo Thomaz (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Sampaio Corrêa RJ won 6 times, CFRJ / Maricá won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Sampaio Corrêa RJ's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.38 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)
H2H summary: Sampaio Corrêa RJ wins 6, draws 4, CFRJ / Maricá wins 3
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
27.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
Last matches: CFRJ / Maricá
07.06.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Velo Clube
1
3
L
30.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Velo Clube
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
1
2
L
26.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Portuguesa
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
3
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Boavista SC
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Pouso Alegre
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
2
1
W
H2H: Sampaio Corrêa RJ vs CFRJ / Maricá
23.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
18.04.26
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
2
D
26.02.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
12.02.26
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
4
W
27.01.26
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
W
26.01.25
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
2
D
28.05.23
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
L
30.04.22
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
2
W
26.06.21
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
L
09.12.20
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
2
W
05.12.20
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
0
0
D
28.11.20
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
L
25.11.20
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
2
W
Last matches: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
20.06.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Velo Clube
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
Noroeste
1
0
W
H2H at home: Sampaio Corrêa RJ
23.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
26.02.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
05.12.20
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
0
0
D
Last matches: CFRJ / Maricá
07.06.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Velo Clube
1
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
3
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Pouso Alegre
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Boavista SC
1
2
L
26.04.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Portuguesa
1
2
L
H2H away: CFRJ / Maricá
23.05.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
26.02.26
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
L
05.12.20
H2H
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
CFRJ / Maricá
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)