ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio Monumental
Referee: D. Herrera

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60%
Odds 6.00
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60%
6.00
BTTS No
50.8%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.57
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.36
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
11.00
Correct Score 0-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
River Plate Win 25.7%
Draw 14.4%
Velez Sarsfield Win 60%
Expected Goals (xG)
River Plate1.01
Velez Sarsfield1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
River Plate River Plate
WWDLW
35 GF / 25 GA
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WLDWL
31 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
9
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
6
5.16
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

River Plate River Plate 29 matches
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 24 matches
River Plate Statistic Velez Sarsfield
14 Wins 12
4 Draws 9
11 Losses 3
35 Goals For 31
25 Goals Against 17
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
9 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 4
5.16 Shots On Goal 4.09
16 Total Shots 11.77
5.68 Corners 4.32
65.1% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. River Plate have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Velez Sarsfield. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

River Plate Analysis

River Plate approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 29 points from 16 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 22:12, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Facundo Colidio (4 goals), Sebastián Driussi (2 goals), Juan Fernando Quintero (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Colidio (2 assists), Juan Fernando Quintero (2 assists), Joaquín Freitas (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 28 points after 16 outings. With 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:12, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Florián Monzón (3 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), Thiago Aguirre (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), Thiago Aguirre (1 assists), Elías Gómez (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, River Plate won 5 times, Velez Sarsfield won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from River Plate's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: River Plate 4-2-3-1 / Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: River Plate wins 5, draws 5, Velez Sarsfield wins 5
Last matches: River Plate
16.08.26
Lig
River Plate
Argentinos JRS
2
0
W
08.08.26
Lig
River Plate
Tigre
0
1
L
02.08.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
0
1
L
29.07.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
0
1
L
25.07.26
Lig
River Plate
Barracas Central
0
1
L
18.07.26
Cop
River Plate
Aldosivi
1
3
L
03.07.26
Fri
River Plate
Flamengo
2
2
D
24.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
14.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
River Plate
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Aldosivi
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Racing Club
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
3
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Huracan
2
1
W
03.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
17.08.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
08.08.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
03.08.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
0
W
30.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
3
1
W
24.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
11.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia L.P.
0
1
L
04.05.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
01.05.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia Y Tiro
2
0
W
27.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Union Santa Fe
2
2
D
20.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
14.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Central Cordoba de Santiago
1
0
W
07.04.26
Cop
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Armenio
4
1
W
03.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
2
3
L
21.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
2
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
1
1
D
02.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Deportivo Riestra
0
0
D
22.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
H2H: River Plate vs Velez Sarsfield
22.02.26
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
L
16.11.25
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
0
0
D
04.05.25
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
4
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
5
0
W
03.09.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
2
0
L
30.05.23
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
2
2
D
17.07.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
2
2
D
07.07.22
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
30.06.22
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
L
14.08.21
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
2
0
W
22.09.19
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
2
L
04.02.19
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
2
W
24.02.18
H2H
Velez Sarsfield
River Plate
1
0
L
01.10.16
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
W
Last matches: River Plate
16.08.26
Lig
River Plate
Argentinos JRS
2
0
W
02.08.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
0
1
L
25.07.26
Lig
River Plate
Barracas Central
0
1
L
18.07.26
Cop
River Plate
Aldosivi
1
3
L
24.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
14.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
River Plate
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Aldosivi
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
3
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
26.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Banfield
3
1
W
18.02.26
Cop
River Plate
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Tigre
1
4
L
28.01.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
12.01.26
Fri
River Plate
Millonarios
1
0
W
H2H at home: River Plate
04.05.25
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
4
1
W
19.10.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
5
0
W
07.07.22
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
14.08.21
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
2
0
W
22.09.19
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
2
L
01.10.16
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
W
Last matches: Velez Sarsfield
08.08.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
30.07.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Talleres Cordoba
3
1
W
20.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
03.04.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Gimnasia M.
2
3
L
14.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Platense
2
0
W
10.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Tigre
1
1
D
02.03.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Estudiantes L.P.
1
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Defensa Y Justicia
1
1
D
31.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Independiente
1
1
D
23.01.26
Lig
Velez Sarsfield
Instituto Cordoba
1
0
W
H2H away: Velez Sarsfield
04.05.25
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
4
1
L
19.10.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
04.02.24
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
5
0
L
07.07.22
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
0
0
D
14.08.21
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
2
0
L
22.09.19
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
1
2
W
01.10.16
H2H
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
3
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.00
Draw 3.47
Home 1.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.67
Draw 2.13
Home 2.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.49
Over 1.75 1.62
Over 2.0 1.85
Over 2.25 2.17
Over 2.5 2.48
Over 2.75 2.83
Over 3.5 4.81
Under 0.5 7.40
Under 1.5 2.72
Under 1.75 2.38
Under 2.0 2.03
Under 2.25 1.74
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 6.25
Draw 3.30
Home 1.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.50
Draw 2.05
Home 2.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.25
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 2.5 2.35
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 11.00
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.80
Draw 3.46
Home 1.69
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 6.35
Draw 1.94
Home 2.32
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.55
Draw 2.31
Home 2.03
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 0.75 1.06
Over 1.0 1.08
Over 1.25 1.24
Over 1.5 1.41
Over 1.75 1.54
Over 2.0 1.75
Over 2.25 2.12
Over 2.5 2.42
Over 2.75 2.80
Over 3.0 3.68
Over 3.25 4.12
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 3.75 5.80
Over 4.0 8.70
Over 4.25 8.60
Over 4.5 9.60
Over 5.5 20.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 7.10
Under 0.75 6.29
Under 1.0 5.55
Under 1.25 3.34
Under 1.5 2.54
Under 1.75 2.26
Under 2.0 1.93
Under 2.25 1.72
Under 2.5 1.56
Under 2.75 1.36
Under 3.0 1.22
Under 3.25 1.16
Under 3.5 1.14
Under 3.75 1.07
Under 4.0 1.01
Under 4.25 1.01
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.75
Draw 3.45
Home 1.67
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.60
Draw 2.00
Home 2.23
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 5.25
Draw 2.40
Home 2.07
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.44
Over 1.75 1.56
Over 2.0 1.77
Over 2.25 2.08
Over 2.5 2.40
Over 2.75 2.85
Over 3.5 4.60
Over 4.5 9.50
Under 0.5 7.00
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 1.75 2.33
Under 2.0 1.98
Under 2.25 1.71
Under 2.5 1.54
Under 2.75 1.40
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.04

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D L W L W
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
W L L L L
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
L W W W W
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
W W W D L
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W D L W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
L L W W W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
D L W D L
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
L L L D W
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
L L W W W
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
D W D W L
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
W W W L L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L W L D W
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D W L D W
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
L D L L L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
D L L D L
Knockout Phase