ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio Monumental

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
River Plate Win 56.5%
Draw 16.6%
Rosario Central Win 26.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
River Plate1.15
Rosario Central1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
River Plate River Plate
WWDLW
33 GF / 22 GA
Rosario Central Rosario Central
WLDWL
37 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.32
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
9
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
14
5.52
Shots on Goal
5.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

River Plate River Plate 25 matches
Rosario Central Rosario Central 28 matches
River Plate Statistic Rosario Central
13 Wins 15
4 Draws 5
8 Losses 8
33 Goals For 37
22 Goals Against 25
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
9 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 20
8 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 8
5.52 Shots On Goal 5.08
16.57 Total Shots 13.54
5.62 Corners 4.58
65.6% Ball Possession 56.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Rosario Central. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

River Plate Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 29 points from 16 games, River Plate bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 22:12, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Facundo Colidio (4 goals), Sebastián Driussi (2 goals), Juan Fernando Quintero (1 goals), with creative support from Facundo Colidio (2 assists), Juan Fernando Quintero (2 assists), Joaquín Freitas (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Rosario Central Analysis

Rosario Central arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 28 points after 16 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 20:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Enzo Copetti (3 goals), Julián Fernández (2 goals), Ángel Di María (1 goals), with creative support from Ángel Di María (2 assists), Julián Fernández (1 assists), Gastón Ávila (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, River Plate won 7 times, Rosario Central won 3 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:16 from River Plate's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.4%)
Predicted formations: River Plate 4-2-3-1 / Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: River Plate wins 7, draws 5, Rosario Central wins 3
Last matches: River Plate
25.07.26
Lig
River Plate
Barracas Central
0
1
L
18.07.26
Cop
River Plate
Aldosivi
1
3
L
03.07.26
Fri
River Plate
Flamengo
2
2
D
24.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
14.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
River Plate
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Aldosivi
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
12.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Racing Club
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
3
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
13.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Huracan
2
1
W
03.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Independ. Rivadavia
1
1
D
26.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Banfield
3
1
W
22.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Velez Sarsfield
0
1
L
18.02.26
Cop
River Plate
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Argentinos JRS
0
1
L
Last matches: Rosario Central
23.07.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Belgrano Cordoba
1
2
L
31.05.26
Cop
Rosario Central
Estudiantes L.P.
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
19.05.26
CON
Rosario Central
UCV
4
0
W
16.05.26
Lig
Rosario Central
River Plate
0
1
L
13.05.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Racing Club
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Independiente
3
1
W
05.05.26
CON
Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Tigre
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Rosario Central
UCV
3
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Sarmiento Junin
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Huracan
1
3
L
09.04.26
CON
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Atletico Tucuman
2
1
W
23.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Independ. Rivadavia
0
2
L
15.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Banfield
2
1
W
11.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Argentinos JRS
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Newells Old Boys
2
0
W
H2H: River Plate vs Rosario Central
16.05.26
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
02.02.26
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
0
0
D
06.10.25
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
2
1
L
30.03.25
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
4
0
W
08.04.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
W
23.12.23
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
0
2
W
10.12.23
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
0
0
D
11.11.23
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
3
1
L
24.07.23
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
3
3
D
16.10.22
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
2
L
28.11.21
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
2
2
D
21.02.21
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
3
0
W
29.11.20
H2H
Rosario Central
River Plate
0
2
W
08.11.20
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
W
Last matches: River Plate
25.07.26
Lig
River Plate
Barracas Central
0
1
L
18.07.26
Cop
River Plate
Aldosivi
1
3
L
24.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
2
3
L
16.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
14.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
River Plate
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
03.05.26
Lig
River Plate
Atletico Tucuman
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Aldosivi
3
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
River Plate
Belgrano Cordoba
3
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
River Plate
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
26.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Banfield
3
1
W
18.02.26
Cop
River Plate
Ciudad de Bolívar
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
River Plate
Tigre
1
4
L
28.01.26
Lig
River Plate
Gimnasia L.P.
2
0
W
12.01.26
Fri
River Plate
Millonarios
1
0
W
H2H at home: River Plate
16.05.26
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
W
30.03.25
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
4
0
W
08.04.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
W
10.12.23
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
0
0
D
16.10.22
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
2
L
21.02.21
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
3
0
W
08.11.20
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
W
Last matches: Rosario Central
23.07.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Belgrano Cordoba
1
2
L
31.05.26
Cop
Rosario Central
Estudiantes L.P.
0
3
L
27.05.26
CON
Rosario Central
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
16.05.26
Lig
Rosario Central
River Plate
0
1
L
29.04.26
CON
Rosario Central
UCV
3
0
W
24.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2
1
W
15.04.26
CON
Rosario Central
Libertad Asuncion
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Huracan
1
3
L
23.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Independ. Rivadavia
0
2
L
11.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Argentinos JRS
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Newells Old Boys
2
0
W
25.02.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Gimnasia L.P.
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Aldosivi
1
1
D
28.01.26
Lig
Rosario Central
Racing Club
2
1
W
H2H away: Rosario Central
16.05.26
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
0
L
30.03.25
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
2
D
08.12.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
4
0
L
08.04.24
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
L
10.12.23
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
0
0
D
16.10.22
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
1
2
W
21.02.21
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
3
0
L
08.11.20
H2H
River Plate
Rosario Central
2
1
L

Standings

Apertura - Group B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 10 4 2 29:15 14 34
D L D W D
2 16 9 2 5 22:12 10 29
L L W W W
3 16 8 5 3 17:13 4 29
W L W W L
4 16 8 4 4 20:16 4 28
L L W W D
5 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W W W W W
6 16 8 2 6 19:19 0 26
L L W W W
7 16 5 7 4 17:13 4 22
W L W D L
8 16 5 6 5 17:15 2 21
W L W D D
9 16 5 6 5 15:15 0 21
W L D D W
10 16 4 8 4 18:15 3 20
L D L D D
11 16 6 1 9 13:20 -7 19
L L W L L
12 16 5 3 8 17:19 -2 18
L W D D L
13 16 3 5 8 15:20 -5 14
D W D L D
14 16 0 8 8 6:19 -13 8
D D L D L
15 16 1 2 13 5:24 -19 5
W L L L L
Knockout Phase