AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Innviertel Arena
Referee: M. Hameter
Ried
Match Timeline
Wolfsberger AC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
37'
Fabian Wohlmuth
Wolfsberger AC
🔄
46'
E. Kojzek ↔ E. Chukwu
Wolfsberger AC
🟨
58'
Nicolas Wimmer
Wolfsberger AC
🟨
61'
Jussef Nasrawe
Ried
🔄
70'
E. Agyeman ↔ A. Schopf
Wolfsberger AC
🟨
72'
Angelo Gattermayer
Wolfsberger AC
80'
K. Mutandwa · Assist: O. Steurer
Ried
🔄
84'
A. van Wyk ↔ J. Boguo
Ried
🔄
84'
A. Gattermayer ↔ D. Avdijaj
Wolfsberger AC
🔄
84'
B. Matic ↔ R. Renner
Wolfsberger AC
🔄
84'
D. Baumgartner ↔ C. Diabate
Wolfsberger AC
87'
M. Sulzner · Assist: D. Zukic
Wolfsberger AC
90'
K. Mutandwa · Assist: A. Bajic
Ried

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ried Win 64.4%
Draw 6.5%
Wolfsberger AC Win 29.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ried1.28
Wolfsberger AC1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ried Ried
WWDLW
49 GF / 44 GA
Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC
WLDWL
55 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
17
BTTS Yes
21
17
Over 2.5
22
3.59
Shots on Goal
3.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ried Ried 37 matches
Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 40 matches
Ried Statistic Wolfsberger AC
16 Wins 15
6 Draws 9
15 Losses 16
49 Goals For 55
44 Goals Against 49
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
17 BTTS Yes 21
28 Over 1.5 29
17 Over 2.5 22
8 Over 3.5 13
11 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 12
3.59 Shots On Goal 3.64
11.78 Total Shots 10.97
4.31 Corners 4.11
49.1% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Wolfsberger AC have the edge after taking the first leg 1-0, leaving Ried needing to respond to a 1-goal deficit. In the previous meeting, Ried had more of the ball in the first leg (66% possession compared to 34%). Wolfsberger AC carried the greater threat on target, finishing with 6 shots on goal compared to 2. Ried also attempted more passes (452 to 228) and completed 368. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Wolfsberger AC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ried expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Wolfsberger AC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Wolfsberger AC having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Wolfsberger AC.

Ried Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Ried arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 28 points after 32 matches. The return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 38:42 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by K. Mutandwa (14 goals), M. Grosse (6 goals), A. Bajic (5 goals), with creative support from A. Bajic (4 assists), Philipp Pomer (4 assists), K. Mutandwa (3 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the return of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Wolfsberger AC Analysis

Wolfsberger AC enter this tie with a season profile built on 28 points from 32 matches, placing them 2 in their league. The return of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 41:42 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by D. Zukic (7 goals), M. Pink (7 goals), A. Schopf (5 goals), with creative support from D. Zukic (10 assists), A. Schopf (5 assists), B. Matic (5 assists), and at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses suggests a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Ried won 4 times, Wolfsberger AC won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Ried's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
Predicted formations: Ried 4-2-3-1 / Wolfsberger AC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Ried wins 4, draws 5, Wolfsberger AC wins 6

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9
Ried Home
22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)