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SPAIN › LA LIGA
30.08.2026 15:00
Santiago Bernabéu Stadium
Referee: J. Martinez
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
19'
J. Bellingham
Real Madrid
⚽
26'
A. Herrero
Real Madrid
⚽
30'
K. Mbappe · Assist: T. Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid
🔄
46'
R. Rodriguez ↔ P. Martinez
Malaga
🔄
60'
C. Puga ↔ J. Salinas
Malaga
🔄
61'
J. Munoz ↔ J. Cruz
Malaga
🔄
65'
B. Diaz ↔ Y. Diomande
Real Madrid
🟨
66'
Chupete
Malaga
🔄
74'
E. Galilea ↔ H. Abaida
Malaga
🔄
77'
F. Valverde ↔ B. Silva
Real Madrid
VAR
86'
Haitam Abaida
Malaga
🔄
87'
J. Bellingham ↔ A. Guler
Real Madrid
🔄
87'
I. Merino ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🟨
90+3'
Ramón Enríquez
Malaga
⚽
90'
A. Guler · Assist: Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Malaga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 59.1%
Draw 4%
Malaga Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid2.34
Malaga1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
18 GF / 6 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
2.57
Average Goals Scored
1.86
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
5
9.5
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 7 matches
Malaga Malaga 7 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Malaga
6 Wins 1
1 Draws 4
0 Losses 2
18 Goals For 13
6 Goals Against 14
2.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 7
6 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 1
9.5 Shots On Goal 1.5
20.5 Total Shots 9
6 Corners 4
57% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 11 times, Malaga won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 38:13 from Real Madrid's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 / Malaga 4-4-2
Missing players: Real Madrid 7, Malaga 5
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 11, draws 3, Malaga wins 1

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 8 0 0 34:7 27 24
W W W W W
2 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W W W W L
3 8 6 1 1 14:9 5 19
W D W W W
4 8 6 0 2 19:8 11 18
W L W W L
5 8 4 2 2 13:12 1 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 1 3 12:15 -3 13
W W L W D
7 8 3 2 3 12:8 4 11
L D L L W
8 8 2 4 2 12:11 1 10
L D L D W
9 8 1 5 2 8:6 2 8
D W D D D
10 6 2 2 2 7:6 1 8
D D W W
11 8 2 2 4 13:13 0 8
L W W L L
12 8 2 2 4 11:11 0 8
D L L W D
13 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
14 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
15 8 2 2 4 13:23 -10 8
D L L W L
16 8 2 2 4 8:18 -10 8
L D L L L
17 7 1 3 3 11:15 -4 6
D L L D W
18 8 1 3 4 11:17 -6 6
D W L D L
19 8 1 2 5 6:15 -9 5
D L W L L
20 8 0 4 4 4:13 -9 4
D L L D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2