SPAIN LA LIGA
30.08.2026 15:00
Bernabéu
Referee: Juan Martinez Munuera, Spain
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
Malaga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
J. Bellingham
Real Madrid
26'
A. Herrero
Real Madrid
30'
K. Mbappe · Assist: T. Alexander-Arnold
Real Madrid
🔄
46'
R. Rodriguez ↔ P. Martinez
Malaga
🔄
60'
C. Puga ↔ J. Salinas
Malaga
🔄
61'
J. Munoz ↔ J. Cruz
Malaga
🔄
65'
B. Diaz ↔ Y. Diomande
Real Madrid
🟨
66'
Chupete
Malaga
🔄
74'
E. Galilea ↔ H. Abaida
Malaga
🔄
77'
F. Valverde ↔ B. Silva
Real Madrid
VAR
86'
Haitam Abaida
Malaga
🔄
87'
J. Bellingham ↔ A. Guler
Real Madrid
🔄
87'
I. Merino ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🟨
90+3'
Ramón Enríquez
Malaga
90'
A. Guler · Assist: Vinicius Junior
Real Madrid

Real Madrid vs Malaga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.1%
Odds 1.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.30
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.1%
1.11
BTTS Yes
75.1%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.30
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.76
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.44
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 59.1%
Draw 4%
Malaga Win 36.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid2.34
Malaga1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
18 GF / 6 GA
Malaga Malaga
WLDWL
13 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
2.57
Average Goals Scored
1.86
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
2
5
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
5
9.5
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 7 matches
Malaga Malaga 7 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Malaga
6 Wins 1
1 Draws 4
0 Losses 2
18 Goals For 13
6 Goals Against 14
2.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 2
5 BTTS Yes 6
6 Over 1.5 7
6 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 1
9.5 Shots On Goal 1.5
20.5 Total Shots 9
6 Corners 4
57% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 11 times, Malaga won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 38:13 from Real Madrid's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 / Malaga 4-4-2
Missing players: Real Madrid 7, Malaga 5
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 11, draws 3, Malaga wins 1

Standings

La Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 5 0 0 21:4 17 15
W W W W W
2 5 4 0 1 14:4 10 12
W L W W W
3 5 4 0 1 7:6 1 12
W W L W W
4 5 3 1 1 11:5 6 10
L W W D W
5 5 3 1 1 10:6 4 10
W L W D W
6 5 3 1 1 8:6 2 10
W D L W W
7 5 2 3 0 9:6 3 9
D W W D D
8 5 2 1 2 8:5 3 7
W D L L W
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
D W W L L
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
W L W L D
11 5 2 1 2 5:8 -3 7
L L W W D
12 6 2 1 3 6:11 -5 7
L W D W L
13 5 1 2 2 7:9 -2 5
L D W D L
14 5 1 2 2 3:6 -3 5
D D L W L
15 6 0 4 2 3:6 -3 4
D D D L L
16 5 1 1 3 8:14 -6 4
L W L D L
17 5 0 3 2 2:8 -6 3
D D L D L
18 5 0 2 3 7:10 -3 2
L L L D D
19 5 0 2 3 6:13 -7 2
D L L L D
20 5 0 1 4 1:10 -9 1
L L L L D
Champions League league stage
Europa League league stage
ECL Playoffs
Relegation