SPAIN LA LIGA
23.05.2026 19:00
Estadio Santiago Bernabéu
Referee: J. Martinez
Real Madrid
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Thiago Pitarch
Real Madrid
12'
G. Garcia · Assist: D. Carvajal
Real Madrid
🟨
20'
Jude Bellingham
Real Madrid
41'
J. Bellingham · Assist: T. Pitarch
Real Madrid
45'
G. Guruzeta · Assist: I. Williams
Athletic Club
🔄
46'
Y. Alvarez ↔ A. Gorosabel
Athletic Club
51'
K. Mbappe · Assist: A. Carreras
Real Madrid
🔄
60'
I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↔ I. Lekue
Athletic Club
🔄
60'
U. Gomez ↔ A. Rego
Athletic Club
🔄
70'
D. Alaba ↔ D. Huijsen
Real Madrid
🔄
74'
J. Bellingham ↔ D. Ceballos
Real Madrid
🔄
74'
F. Mastantuono ↔ B. Diaz
Real Madrid
🔄
74'
G. Garcia ↔ A. Guler
Real Madrid
🔄
74'
G. Guruzeta ↔ Izeta
Athletic Club
🔄
84'
D. Carvajal ↔ M. Serrano
Real Madrid
🔄
85'
M. Jauregizar ↔ M. Vesga
Athletic Club
88'
B. Diaz · Assist: T. Pitarch
Real Madrid
VAR
89'
Brahim Díaz
Real Madrid
90'
Izeta · Assist: I. Williams
Athletic Club

Real Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
64.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Real Madrid Win 87.9%
Draw 0%
Athletic Club Win 12.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Real Madrid1.85
Athletic Club1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Real Madrid Real Madrid
WWDLW
111 GF / 58 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
57 GF / 74 GA
Key Stats
2.09
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
31
BTTS Yes
25
33
Over 2.5
23
6.72
Shots on Goal
4.32

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Real Madrid Real Madrid 53 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 50 matches
Real Madrid Statistic Athletic Club
36 Wins 18
5 Draws 8
12 Losses 24
111 Goals For 57
58 Goals Against 74
2.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
31 BTTS Yes 25
45 Over 1.5 35
33 Over 2.5 23
16 Over 3.5 12
18 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 19
6.72 Shots On Goal 4.32
17.74 Total Shots 13.64
6.4 Corners 5.7
58% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Real Madrid's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Athletic Club. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Athletic Club arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Real Madrid expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Athletic Club in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Real Madrid arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 83 points compared to Athletic Club in 12 on 45, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Real Madrid Analysis

Real Madrid approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 83 points after 37 outings. The return of 26 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 73:33, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through K. Mbappe (24 goals), Vinícius Júnior (16 goals), F. Valverde (5 goals), with creative support from A. Guler (9 assists), F. Valverde (8 assists), B. Diaz (6 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 15 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 45 points from 37 matches. Their record of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 41:54, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gorka Guruzeta (9 goals), N. Williams (6 goals), R. Navarro (6 goals), with creative support from Yuri Berchiche (6 assists), I. Williams (4 assists), Gorka Guruzeta (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Real Madrid won 11 times, Athletic Club won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:10 from Real Madrid's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Real Madrid 4-4-2 / Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Real Madrid 8, Athletic Club 5
H2H summary: Real Madrid wins 11, draws 1, Athletic Club wins 3

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 31 1 6 95:36 59 94
L W L W W
2 38 27 5 6 77:35 42 86
W W W L W
3 38 22 6 10 72:46 26 72
W L L D W
4 38 21 6 11 62:44 18 69
L W W L W
5 38 15 15 8 59:48 11 60
W L W D W
6 38 14 12 12 53:48 5 54
W D L W W
7 38 15 6 17 32:38 -6 51
W L W D L
8 38 12 14 12 41:44 -3 50
W W D D W
9 38 13 10 15 46:55 -9 49
W W D W L
10 38 11 13 14 59:61 -2 46
D L D D L
11 38 12 10 16 43:55 -12 46
D W W L L
12 38 13 6 19 43:58 -15 45
L D L L W
13 38 12 7 19 46:60 -14 43
L L W W W
14 38 11 10 17 44:56 -12 43
L W W D L
15 38 10 13 15 49:57 -8 43
D W L D L
16 38 11 9 18 47:61 -14 42
L W W W L
17 38 11 9 18 44:50 -6 42
L L L L L
18 38 11 9 18 47:57 -10 42
W L L D W
19 38 9 14 15 39:55 -16 41
D L D D L
20 38 6 11 21 26:60 -34 29
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2