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SPAIN › LA LIGA
24.10.2026 12:00
Campo de Futbol de Vallecas

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
88%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Rayo Vallecano Win 59.9%
Draw 8%
Elche Win 32.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Rayo Vallecano1.51
Elche1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano
WWDLW
17 GF / 26 GA
Elche Elche
WLDWL
19 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.36
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
11
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
9
4.63
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 12 matches
Elche Elche 14 matches
Rayo Vallecano Statistic Elche
3 Wins 3
3 Draws 7
6 Losses 4
17 Goals For 19
26 Goals Against 23
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
2.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
11 BTTS Yes 10
12 Over 1.5 11
9 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 7
0 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 4
4.63 Shots On Goal 4.22
14.38 Total Shots 11
5.63 Corners 4.56
51.1% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Elche. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Rayo Vallecano expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Elche in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Elche having the stronger overall control.

Rayo Vallecano Analysis

Rayo Vallecano sit 13 with 8 points after 7 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 11:16 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Sergio Camello (7 goals), Álvaro García (1 goals), Adrià Pedrosa (1 goals), with creative support from Unai López (3 assists), Álvaro García (2 assists), Sergio Camello (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Elche Analysis

Elche approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 6 points from 8 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 11:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Fer Niño (5 goals), Germán Valera (1 goals), Buba Sangaré (1 goals), with creative support from Tete Morente (3 assists), R. Revivo (2 assists), L. Cepeda (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano won 5 times, Elche won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:26 from Rayo Vallecano's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Rayo Vallecano 4-3-3 / Elche 5-3-2
H2H summary: Rayo Vallecano wins 5, draws 2, Elche wins 8

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 9 0 0 39:9 30 27
W W W W W
2 9 7 1 1 19:8 11 22
W W W W W
3 9 7 0 2 23:9 14 21
W W L W W
4 9 6 1 2 16:14 2 19
L W D W W
5 9 5 1 3 17:17 0 16
W W W L W
6 9 4 2 3 14:16 -2 14
L D L W W
7 9 3 2 4 13:10 3 11
L L D L L
8 9 2 5 2 10:7 3 11
W D W D D
9 9 2 5 2 13:12 1 11
D L D L D
10 9 3 2 4 10:18 -8 11
W L D L L
11 7 2 3 2 7:6 1 9
D D D W
12 9 2 3 4 13:13 0 9
D L W W L
13 9 2 2 5 11:12 -1 8
L D L L W
14 7 2 2 3 11:16 -5 8
D W L W
15 8 2 2 4 4:10 -6 8
L W L D D
16 9 2 2 5 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
17 8 1 4 3 12:16 -4 7
D D L L D
18
Elche Away
9 1 4 4 11:17 -6 7
D D W L D
19 9 1 3 5 6:15 -9 6
D D L W L
20 9 0 4 5 6:18 -12 4
L D L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2