CHINA SUPER LEAGUE
04.07.2026 11:00
Guzhenkou University Sports Center
Referee: Tao Wan, China
Qingdao Youth Island
Match Timeline
SHANGHAI SIPG
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
30'
Yuan Zhang
SHANGHAI SIPG
🟥
31'
Yuan Zhang
SHANGHAI SIPG
VAR
39'
Leonardo
SHANGHAI SIPG
VAR
45+3'
Aziz
Qingdao Youth Island
🟨
47'
Xinxiang Li
SHANGHAI SIPG
🔄
65'
X. Li ↔ Liu Zhurun
SHANGHAI SIPG
🔄
65'
Wang Zhenao ↔ A. Yang
SHANGHAI SIPG
VAR
80'
Nelson Luz
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
80'
O. Melendo ↔ Zhang Linpeng
SHANGHAI SIPG
84'
N. Da Luz · Assist: A. Yakubu
Qingdao Youth Island
🟨
88'
Xi Yang
SHANGHAI SIPG
🔄
89'
Jean Claude ↔ M. Orr
SHANGHAI SIPG
🟨
90+9'
Peng Wang
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
90+7'
N. Da Luz ↔ Nan Song
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
90+8'
X. Zhang ↔ S. Jin
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
90+3'
Zhang Chengdong ↔ Wang Peng
Qingdao Youth Island
🔄
90+3'
Peng Xinli ↔ Yang Zhanpeng
Qingdao Youth Island
90'
Davidson · Assist: A. Yakubu
Qingdao Youth Island
90'
M. Orr · Assist: Li Shuai
SHANGHAI SIPG

Qingdao Youth Island vs SHANGHAI SIPG Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.2%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Qingdao Youth Island Win 47.2%
Draw 18.9%
SHANGHAI SIPG Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Qingdao Youth Island1.41
SHANGHAI SIPG1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island
WWDLW
21 GF / 27 GA
SHANGHAI SIPG SHANGHAI SIPG
WLDWL
26 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
13
BTTS Yes
13
6
Over 2.5
12
3.5
Shots on Goal
3.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Qingdao Youth Island Qingdao Youth Island 18 matches
SHANGHAI SIPG SHANGHAI SIPG 18 matches
Qingdao Youth Island Statistic SHANGHAI SIPG
4 Wins 5
10 Draws 5
4 Losses 8
21 Goals For 26
27 Goals Against 32
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
13 BTTS Yes 13
15 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 8
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
3.5 Shots On Goal 3.38
10.63 Total Shots 11.06
4.5 Corners 5.5
42.8% Ball Possession 58.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by SHANGHAI SIPG's more proactive style and Qingdao Youth Island's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Qingdao Youth Island arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 18 points compared to SHANGHAI SIPG in 14 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SHANGHAI SIPG. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Qingdao Youth Island expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and SHANGHAI SIPG in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward SHANGHAI SIPG having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Qingdao Youth Island Analysis

Qingdao Youth Island are currently 6 in the standings with 18 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 17:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

SHANGHAI SIPG Analysis

SHANGHAI SIPG approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 12 points from 15 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 23:21, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Qingdao Youth Island won 1 times, SHANGHAI SIPG won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Qingdao Youth Island's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Qingdao Youth Island 4-4-1-1 / SHANGHAI SIPG 5-3-2
H2H summary: Qingdao Youth Island wins 1, draws 2, SHANGHAI SIPG wins 3

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 7 4 51:30 21 52
D W L W L
2 26 12 4 10 38:42 -4 40
W D W D L
3 26 11 10 5 49:33 16 38
D D D W W
4 26 11 5 10 54:51 3 38
W L D W W
5 26 8 14 4 31:32 -1 38
D D W D D
6 26 13 4 9 46:43 3 37
D W L W W
7 26 10 8 8 40:33 7 33
D W W D W
8 26 12 5 9 52:46 6 31
W L W L W
9 26 7 10 9 27:32 -5 31
L D L D L
10 25 9 6 10 41:42 -1 28
L W D L L
11 26 8 4 14 34:45 -11 28
D L D W L
12 26 8 9 9 33:35 -2 27
D D D D L
13 26 7 4 15 34:47 -13 25
L L L D L
14 26 9 8 9 36:32 4 25
W W D D L
15 25 5 11 9 38:42 -4 21
D D W D L
16 26 6 3 17 34:53 -19 14
L L L L L
AFC Champions League Elite League Stage
AFC Champions League 2 Group Stage
Relegation