GEORGIA EROVNULI LIGA
14.09.2026 17:00
Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena

Dinamo Tbilisi vs Gagra Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.2%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Dinamo Tbilisi Win 68.2%
Draw 5%
Gagra Win 26.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Dinamo Tbilisi1.43
Gagra1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi
WWDLW
51 GF / 50 GA
Gagra Gagra
WLDWL
36 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.13
1.43
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
22
BTTS Yes
19
19
Over 2.5
14
0.73
Shots on Goal
1.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Dinamo Tbilisi Dinamo Tbilisi 35 matches
Gagra Gagra 32 matches
Dinamo Tbilisi Statistic Gagra
13 Wins 8
12 Draws 13
10 Losses 11
51 Goals For 36
50 Goals Against 44
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.13
1.43 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
22 BTTS Yes 19
27 Over 1.5 26
19 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 9
0.73 Shots On Goal 1.5
2 Total Shots 2.83
0.64 Corners 1.5
9.5% Ball Possession 16.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Dinamo Tbilisi's more proactive style and Gagra's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gagra. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Gagra having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Dinamo Tbilisi Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 38 points from 23 games, Dinamo Tbilisi bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 10 wins, 8 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 36:27, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Gagra Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Gagra have collected 27 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 23:31 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Dinamo Tbilisi won 6 times, Gagra won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:16 from Dinamo Tbilisi's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Dinamo Tbilisi 4-3-3 / Gagra 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Dinamo Tbilisi wins 6, draws 3, Gagra wins 6

Standings

Umaglesi Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 12 7 6 31:21 10 43
D L D W W
2 25 12 7 6 41:32 9 43
W W W W W
3 24 10 9 5 36:27 9 39
D D W L W
4 23 11 4 8 32:27 5 37
L W L L W
5 24 11 3 10 31:25 6 36
W W L D W
6 25 8 9 8 38:29 9 33
D D L D W
7 25 9 5 11 34:46 -12 32
L L D W L
8
Gagra Away
25 6 10 9 24:32 -8 28
D L W L D
9 25 5 10 10 33:38 -5 25
D D L L D
10 25 2 10 13 19:42 -23 16
D D W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga (Relegation)
Relegation - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2