BRAZIL SERIE D
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Estadio Luso Brasileiro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.1%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Portuguesa RJ Win 52.1%
Draw 14.3%
Noroeste Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Portuguesa RJ1.12
Noroeste1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Portuguesa RJ Portuguesa RJ
WWDLW
14 GF / 9 GA
Noroeste Noroeste
WLDWL
12 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.2
0.9
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
4
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Portuguesa RJ Portuguesa RJ 10 matches
Noroeste Noroeste 10 matches
Portuguesa RJ Statistic Noroeste
3 Wins 4
5 Draws 3
2 Losses 3
14 Goals For 12
9 Goals Against 7
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
0.9 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
4 BTTS Yes 3
8 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 3
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This knockout meeting sets up as a clash between two sides with a fairly similar football identity, where game management could be just as important as attacking output. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Noroeste. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Noroeste having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Portuguesa RJ Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Portuguesa RJ arrive from a league campaign that has them 3 with 14 points after 10 matches. The return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 14:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by Lohan (5 goals), Matheus Iacovelli (5 goals), Elicley (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Noroeste Analysis

Noroeste enter this tie with a season profile built on 15 points from 10 matches, placing them 2 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats with goals at 12:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Marlyson (5 goals), Joao Bravo (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Last matches: Portuguesa RJ
06.06.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa
0
2
L
30.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
América RJ
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Madureira
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Água Santa
2
2
D
02.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Água Santa
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Madureira
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
América RJ
4
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
Last matches: Noroeste
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
Last matches: Portuguesa RJ
30.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
América RJ
2
2
D
10.05.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Água Santa
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Pouso Alegre
2
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Madureira
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Portuguesa RJ
Portuguesa
1
1
D
Last matches: Noroeste
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L

Standings

Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)