BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Porto BA Win 51.2%
Draw 16%
Vitória ES Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Porto BA1.17
Vitória ES1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Porto BA Porto BA
WWDLW
7 GF / 11 GA
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WLDWL
9 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
3
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Porto BA Porto BA 6 matches
Vitória ES Vitória ES 6 matches
Porto BA Statistic Vitória ES
3 Wins 3
0 Draws 0
3 Losses 3
7 Goals For 9
11 Goals Against 7
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
3 BTTS Yes 3
5 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Vitória ES's more proactive style and Porto BA's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vitória ES. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vitória ES having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Porto BA have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Porto BA Analysis

Porto BA sit 3 with 9 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 7:11 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Firmino (2 goals), Luan Rodrigues (2 goals), Cesinha (1 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vitória ES Analysis

Vitória ES approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 9 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a 9:7 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Araujo (2 goals), Tony (2 goals), Abuda (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Porto BA won 0 times, Vitória ES won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:3 from Porto BA's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84%)
H2H summary: Porto BA wins 0, draws 1, Vitória ES wins 1
Last matches: Porto BA
14.06.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
0
4
L
30.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Tombense
1
3
L
25.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Tombense
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
3
2
W
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
H2H: Porto BA vs Vitória ES
16.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
0
D
25.04.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
L
Last matches: Porto BA
30.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Tombense
1
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Porto BA
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Democrata GV
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Porto BA
Rio Branco ES
3
2
W
H2H at home: Porto BA
16.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
0
D
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
H2H away: Vitória ES
16.05.26
H2H
Porto BA
Vitória ES
0
0
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)