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BRAZIL › SERIE B
16.10.2026 22:30
Moisés Lucarelli
Referee: Leonardo Willers Lorenzatto
Ponte Preta
Match Timeline
Atletico Goianiense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🟨
32'
Junior Barreto
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
38'
Danilo Barcelos
Ponte Preta
⚽
42'
David da Hora · Assist: Rodrigo Souza
Ponte Preta
🔄
45'
Guilherme Costa Marques ↔ Matheuzinho
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
45'
Leandro Vilela ↔ Bruno José
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
51'
Gustavo Coutinho Silva Lopes
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
61'
Karl Cachoeira Della Vedova Júnior ↔ Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Ponte Preta
🔄
63'
Ewerthon Diogenes da Silva ↔ João Pedro
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
73'
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Ponte Preta
🔄
74'
David da Hora ↔ Emanuell Silva Ferreira
Ponte Preta
🔄
76'
Guilherme Lopes ↔ Yuri Henrique Da Silveira Alves
Atletico Goianiense
🟨
84'
Yuri Henrique Da Silveira Alves
Atletico Goianiense
⚽
87'
João Pedro · Assist: Bruno José
Atletico Goianiense
🔄
90'
Danilo ↔ Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino
Ponte Preta
🔄
90'
Gustavo Telles ↔ Diego Monteiro Leao
Ponte Preta
🟥
90+2'
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Ponte Preta

Ponte Preta vs Atletico Goianiense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 76.3%
Odds 1.33
BTTS
No
Probability 61.4%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
76.3%
1.33 ▥
BTTS No
61.4%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
1.09 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-3
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Ponte Preta Win 18.7%
Draw 5%
Atletico Goianiense Win 76.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ponte Preta0.71
Atletico Goianiense1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WWDLW
18 GF / 73 GA
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense
WLDWL
41 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
0.55
Average Goals Scored
1.24
2.21
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
13
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
13
3.09
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 33 matches
Atletico Goianiense Atletico Goianiense 33 matches
Ponte Preta Statistic Atletico Goianiense
3 Wins 14
4 Draws 11
26 Losses 8
18 Goals For 41
73 Goals Against 31
0.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
2.21 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
13 BTTS Yes 16
28 Over 1.5 22
14 Over 2.5 13
7 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 12
18 Failed To Score 8
3.09 Shots On Goal 4.42
10.27 Total Shots 15.06
4.09 Corners 6.06
41.6% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Atletico Goianiense's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Atletico Goianiense carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 52 points while Ponte Preta sit 20 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ponte Preta expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Atletico Goianiense in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Goianiense having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Atletico Goianiense. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ponte Preta have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Ponte Preta Analysis

Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 13 points from 32 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 25 defeats, and the 17:68 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Brandão (3 goals), William Pottker (3 goals), Elvis (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Goianiense Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Atletico Goianiense have collected 52 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 14 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 40:30 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Gustavo Coutinho (11 goals), Marrony (4 goals), Soares Geovany (3 goals), with creative support from Soares Geovany (7 assists), Guilherme Marques (3 assists), Guilherme Lopes (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Ponte Preta won 1 times, Atletico Goianiense won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:25 from Ponte Preta's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.57 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Ponte Preta 3-4-1-2 / Atletico Goianiense 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ponte Preta wins 1, draws 4, Atletico Goianiense wins 9

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
3 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 34 13 9 12 44:46 -2 48
L L L L D
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
14 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
15 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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