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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
11.10.2026 15:30
Florian-Krygier-Stadion
Referee: Piotr Lasyk
Pogon Szczecin
Match Timeline
Korona Kielce
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Alessandro Riccio
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
21'
Óscar García Junyent
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
36'
Maciej Wojciechowski
Pogon Szczecin
⚽
45+1'
Maciej Wojciechowski · Assist: Paul Omo Mukairu
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
56'
Ondrej Lingr ↔ Martin Remacle
Korona Kielce
🔄
56'
Mariusz Stępiński ↔ Daniel Bak
Korona Kielce
🔄
73'
Jordi Sánchez ↔ Jean-Pierre Nsame
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
73'
Darko Churlinov ↔ Kamil Grosicki
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
83'
Jan Bieganski ↔ Kellyn Acosta
Pogon Szczecin
⚽
86'
Paul Omo Mukairu · Assist: Jean-Pierre Nsame
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
87'
Patrik Hellebrand ↔ Morgan Faßbender
Korona Kielce
🔄
87'
Camilo Mena ↔ Dawid Błanik
Korona Kielce
🔄
90+1'
Benjamin Mendy ↔ Lukas Willen
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
90+1'
Paul Omo Mukairu ↔ Isaiah·Eichie
Pogon Szczecin

Pogon Szczecin vs Korona Kielce Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 62.6%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
62.6%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.3%
1.80 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Pogon Szczecin Win 43.8%
Draw 18.8%
Korona Kielce Win 37.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pogon Szczecin1.25
Korona Kielce1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
WWDLW
24 GF / 18 GA
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
WLDWL
23 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
8
8
Over 2.5
6
4.88
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 17 matches
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 18 matches
Pogon Szczecin Statistic Korona Kielce
8 Wins 8
5 Draws 6
4 Losses 4
24 Goals For 23
18 Goals Against 18
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 6
4.88 Shots On Goal 4.33
13.5 Total Shots 13.56
3.63 Corners 4.56
41.8% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Korona Kielce. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Pogon Szczecin expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Korona Kielce in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Korona Kielce having the stronger overall control.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

Pogon Szczecin arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 15 points after 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 12:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Churlinov (2 goals), P. Mukairu (1 goals), Léo Borges (1 goals), with creative support from P. Mukairu (2 assists), P. Dziczek (2 assists), M. Wojciechowski (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Korona Kielce Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Korona Kielce have collected 15 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 12:10 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Stępiński (6 goals), M. Faßbender (1 goals), O. Lingr (1 goals), with creative support from W. Długosz (4 assists), Kamil Jakubczyk (1 assists), M. Remacle (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Pogon Szczecin won 5 times, Korona Kielce won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:9 from Pogon Szczecin's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.2%)
Predicted formations: Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2 / Korona Kielce 4-5-1
H2H summary: Pogon Szczecin wins 5, draws 5, Korona Kielce wins 2

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 19:9 10 25
W D W W W
2 9 7 1 1 21:8 13 22
W W L W W
3 10 6 4 0 21:8 13 22
W W D W D
4 9 5 3 1 14:6 8 18
W W W D D
5 10 6 0 4 22:15 7 18
W W W L L
6 10 5 2 3 17:14 3 17
L W W D W
7 10 5 1 4 18:16 2 16
W L W W W
8 10 4 3 3 12:12 0 15
L W L W D
9 10 4 3 3 12:13 -1 15
L L W W D
10 9 4 0 5 13:16 -3 12
L L L W L
11 10 3 2 5 12:15 -3 11
W L L L L
12 9 3 2 4 9:15 -6 11
L W W D L
13 10 1 6 3 14:15 -1 9
L D D D L
14 10 2 3 5 12:17 -5 9
W D L L L
15 10 2 2 6 15:19 -4 8
L W D L D
16 10 2 2 6 9:23 -14 8
L L L D W
17 10 1 3 6 12:19 -7 6
L L L L D
18 10 1 0 9 13:25 -12 3
L L L W L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation