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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
24.10.2026 23:30
Subaru Park

Philadelphia Union vs New England Revolution Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 57.7%
Draw 3.7%
New England Revolution Win 38.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.83
New England Revolution1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
83 GF / 57 GA
New England Revolution New England Revolution
WLDWL
65 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
2.13
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
25
BTTS Yes
22
26
Over 2.5
25
5.32
Shots on Goal
4.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 39 matches
New England Revolution New England Revolution 35 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic New England Revolution
17 Wins 18
9 Draws 5
13 Losses 12
83 Goals For 65
57 Goals Against 48
2.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
25 BTTS Yes 22
33 Over 1.5 29
26 Over 2.5 25
18 Over 3.5 11
10 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 7
5.32 Shots On Goal 4.8
16.35 Total Shots 12.17
6 Corners 4.73
48.1% Ball Possession 50.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New England Revolution. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Philadelphia Union expected to line up in 4-4-2 and New England Revolution in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New England Revolution having the stronger overall control. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Philadelphia Union come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

So far, Philadelphia Union have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 45 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 59:46 reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Iloski (16 goals), B. Damiani (11 goals), Cavan Sullivan (6 goals), with creative support from Cavan Sullivan (6 assists), F. Westfield (6 assists), I. Vassilev (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

New England Revolution Analysis

New England Revolution approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 49 points after 29 outings. They have recorded 15 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, with a 48:41 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Carles Gil (11 goals), D. Turgeman (6 goals), P. Miller (5 goals), with creative support from D. Turgeman (6 assists), Carles Gil (4 assists), P. Miller (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 10 times, New England Revolution won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:8 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 10, draws 2, New England Revolution wins 2

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 7 3 64:23 41 67
D W W W W
2 30 15 10 5 73:51 22 55
W W W L D
3 30 16 4 10 49:41 8 52
W W L L W
4 30 14 6 10 52:44 8 48
L L W W W
5 30 13 8 9 53:45 8 47
D L W L W
6 30 13 7 10 61:48 13 46
D W W W W
7 30 12 5 13 58:70 -12 41
W D W L L
8 30 10 6 14 39:56 -17 36
L L W L W
9 29 9 9 11 60:70 -10 36
L L W L D
10 30 8 12 10 46:55 -9 36
W D W L L
11 30 10 5 15 46:47 -1 35
W W L W W
12 30 8 10 12 43:41 2 34
D L L D L
13 29 7 12 10 37:51 -14 33
L W L D L
14 30 8 6 16 37:51 -14 30
L W L D W
15 30 6 7 17 36:60 -24 25
D L L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)