🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Subaru Park
Referee: L. Hernandez
Philadelphia Union
Match Timeline
DC United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Tai Baribo
DC United
🟨
37'
João Peglow
DC United
🟨
60'
Nikola Markovic
DC United
🔄
64'
I. Vassilev ↔ C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
75'
Peglow ↔ C. Clark
DC United
🔄
75'
J. Hopkins ↔ G. Turner
DC United
🔄
76'
J. Bueno ↔ D. Jean Jacques
Philadelphia Union

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Philadelphia Union Win 43.1%
Draw 13.9%
DC United Win 43.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Philadelphia Union1.57
DC United0.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WWDLW
28 GF / 21 GA
DC United DC United
WLDWL
5 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
0.5
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
9
BTTS Yes
3
10
Over 2.5
4
4.27
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 16 matches
DC United DC United 10 matches
Philadelphia Union Statistic DC United
5 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
9 Losses 5
28 Goals For 5
21 Goals Against 13
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 0.5
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
9 BTTS Yes 3
13 Over 1.5 4
10 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 6
4.27 Shots On Goal 2.71
14.09 Total Shots 10.14
6.18 Corners 4.43
51.2% Ball Possession 41.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring DC United. DC United carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 7 points while Philadelphia Union sit 14 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

With 3 points from 7 games and a place of 14, Philadelphia Union still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 6 defeats with a 6:12 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Anello (1 goals), Danley Jean Jacques (1 goals), I. Vassilev (1 goals), with creative support from M. Iloski (1 assists), A. Bedoya (1 assists), C. Sullivan (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without A. Anello, E. Davis III, Q. Sullivan, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

DC United Analysis

DC United approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 7 points from 7 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 4:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Baribo (3 goals), M. Peltola (1 goals), with creative support from Peglow (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without H. Karamoko, G. Segal, T. Baribo, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Philadelphia Union won 8 times, DC United won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 37:10 from Philadelphia Union's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 / DC United 4-4-2
Missing players: Philadelphia Union 3, DC United 4
H2H summary: Philadelphia Union wins 8, draws 5, DC United wins 2
Stats
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
DC United DC United
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
13 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Goal 0
6 Shots off Goal 5
7 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 3
8 Shots outsidebox 3
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
410 Total passes 260
273 Passes accurate 151
1.27 expected_goals 0.66
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Philadelphia Union
Formation
DC United
A. Blake
A. Blake
N. Harriel
N. Harriel
J. Sery Larsen
J. Sery Larsen
O. Makhanya
O. Makhanya
F. Westfield
F. Westfield
I. Vassilev
I. Vassilev
J. Bueno
J. Bueno
J. Lukic
J. Lukic
M. Iloski
M. Iloski
E. Alladoh
E. Alladoh
B. Damiani
B. Damiani
S. Johnson
S. Johnson
S. Hefti
S. Hefti
L. Bartlett
L. Bartlett
K. Rowles
K. Rowles
K. Kurokawa
K. Kurokawa
A. Herrera
A. Herrera
M. Peltola
M. Peltola
N. Markovic
N. Markovic
Peglow
Peglow
T. Baribo
T. Baribo
J. Hopkins
J. Hopkins
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Starting XI
18
A. Blake
G
26
N. Harriel
D
5
J. Sery Larsen
D
29
O. Makhanya
D
39
F. Westfield
D
19
I. Vassilev
↓ 64'
M
8
J. Bueno
↓ 76'
M
4
J. Lukic
M
10
M. Iloski
M
23
E. Alladoh
F
9
B. Damiani
F
Substitutes
76
A. Rick
G
11
A. Bedoya
M
21
D. Jean Jacques
↑ 76'
M
20
P. Ndinga
D
14
J. Rafanello
M
16
B. Bender
M
6
C. Sullivan
↑ 64'
M
2
G. Martinez
D
51
M. Jakupovic
F
DC United 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
S. Johnson
G
5
S. Hefti
D
3
L. Bartlett
D
15
K. Rowles
D
6
K. Kurokawa
D
22
A. Herrera
M
4
M. Peltola
M
27
N. Markovic
🟨 60'
M
7
Peglow
↓ 75' 🟨 37'
M
9
T. Baribo
🟨 35'
F
25
J. Hopkins
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
24
J. Farr
G
26
A. Bono
G
8
J. Stroud
M
77
H. Kijima
M
17
J. Murrell
F
23
B. Servania
M
12
C. Antley
D
30
C. Clark
↑ 75'
M
48
G. Turner
↑ 75'
M
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
27.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
7
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
1
L
18.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
5
0
W
10.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
4
L
Last matches: DC United
23.07.26
Maj
DC United
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
23.05.26
Maj
DC United
CF Montreal
4
4
D
16.05.26
Maj
DC United
St. Louis City
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
DC United
Chicago Fire
1
3
L
10.05.26
Maj
DC United
Nashville SC
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
DC United
New York City FC
2
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
DC United
Orlando City SC
3
2
W
22.04.26
Maj
DC United
New York Red Bulls
4
4
D
11.04.26
Maj
DC United
New England Revolution
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
DC United
FC Dallas
0
4
L
21.03.26
Maj
DC United
Atlanta United FC
0
0
D
15.03.26
Maj
DC United
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
DC United
Inter Miami
1
2
L
01.03.26
Maj
DC United
Austin
0
1
L
22.02.26
Maj
DC United
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
DC United
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
07.02.26
Fri
DC United
Portland Timbers
0
0
D
31.01.26
Fri
DC United
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
4
L
H2H: Philadelphia Union vs DC United
18.04.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
22.02.26
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
1
0
L
27.09.25
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
0
6
W
26.04.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
3
0
W
22.09.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
4
0
W
04.05.24
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
2
2
D
26.08.23
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
1
3
W
04.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
17.05.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
20.08.22
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
0
6
W
08.07.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
7
0
W
29.08.21
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
3
1
L
17.07.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
2
1
W
24.05.21
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
0
1
W
15.10.20
H2H
DC United
Philadelphia Union
2
2
D
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
27.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
7
0
W
10.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
4
L
07.02.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
0
W
29.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Buducnost Podgorica
3
0
W
H2H at home: Philadelphia Union
18.04.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
26.04.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
3
0
W
22.09.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
4
0
W
04.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
17.05.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
08.07.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
7
0
W
17.07.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
2
1
W
Last matches: DC United
23.07.26
Maj
DC United
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
10.05.26
Maj
DC United
Nashville SC
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
DC United
New York City FC
2
0
W
22.04.26
Maj
DC United
New York Red Bulls
4
4
D
11.04.26
Maj
DC United
New England Revolution
0
1
L
21.03.26
Maj
DC United
Atlanta United FC
0
0
D
15.03.26
Maj
DC United
Chicago Fire
2
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
DC United
Austin
0
1
L
07.02.26
Fri
DC United
Portland Timbers
0
0
D
31.01.26
Fri
DC United
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
4
L
H2H away: DC United
18.04.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
26.04.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
3
0
L
22.09.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
4
0
L
04.08.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
17.05.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
08.07.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
7
0
L
17.07.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
DC United
2
1
L

Missing Players

Philadelphia Union 3 missing
-
A. Anello
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
Q. Sullivan
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
S. Olivas
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
DC United 4 missing
-
H. Karamoko
Missing Fixture Illness
OUT
-
G. Segal
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
T. Baribo
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
S. Nealis
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT