URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.7%
-
BTTS No
60.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Penarol Win 73.7%
Draw 5.6%
Central Espanol Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Penarol1.36
Central Espanol1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Penarol Penarol
WWDLW
44 GF / 28 GA
Central Espanol Central Espanol
WLDWL
28 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.22
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
16
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
11
3
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Penarol Penarol 29 matches
Central Espanol Central Espanol 23 matches
Penarol Statistic Central Espanol
14 Wins 10
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 7
44 Goals For 28
28 Goals Against 26
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
16 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 5
8 Clean Sheets 9
5 Failed To Score 6
3 Shots On Goal 0
10 Total Shots 0
3 Corners 0
32.1% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Central Espanol. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Central Espanol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Penarol Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 43 points from 22 games, Penarol bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 13 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:19 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Central Espanol Analysis

Central Espanol arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 36 points after 23 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 28:26 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points toward an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Penarol won 2 times, Central Espanol won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:4 from Penarol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Penarol 4-4-2 / Central Espanol -
H2H summary: Penarol wins 2, draws 1, Central Espanol wins 2
Last matches: Penarol
05.08.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
5
1
W
01.08.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
18.07.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
3
0
W
12.07.26
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
07.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
1
0
W
01.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.05.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
22.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
2
W
07.05.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
01.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
17.04.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
10.04.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Progreso
2
0
W
Last matches: Central Espanol
08.08.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
1
0
W
02.08.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
12.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
0
0
D
06.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
1
1
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Racing Montevideo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
12.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Danubio
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
31.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro Largo
1
3
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
28.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Wanderers
0
1
L
H2H: Penarol vs Central Espanol
01.06.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
15.02.26
H2H
Central Espanol
Penarol
2
1
L
13.01.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
0
D
29.03.13
H2H
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
3
W
06.10.12
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
3
0
W
Last matches: Penarol
05.08.26
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
5
1
W
01.08.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
18.07.26
Pri
Penarol
Boston River
3
0
W
01.06.26
Pri
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
28.05.26
CON
Penarol
Santa Fe
0
1
L
22.05.26
CON
Penarol
Corinthians
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
20.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Juventud
2
2
D
17.04.26
CON
Penarol
Platense
1
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Penarol
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
29.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Cerro
3
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Penarol
Danubio
1
1
D
22.02.26
Pri
Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado
2
1
W
07.02.26
Pri
Penarol
Atletico Torque
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Club Nacional
2
2
D
02.11.25
Pri
Penarol
Defensor Sporting
2
1
W
19.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Wanderers
3
0
W
05.10.25
Pri
Penarol
Danubio
2
0
W
H2H at home: Penarol
01.06.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
L
13.01.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
0
D
06.10.12
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
3
0
W
Last matches: Central Espanol
12.07.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
0
0
D
01.06.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Cerro
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Boston River
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Albion FC
1
6
L
03.04.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Club Nacional
1
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Liverpool Montevideo
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Atletico Torque
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Juventud
1
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Central Espanol
Progreso
3
0
W
26.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Albion FC
0
0
D
11.10.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Rampla Juniors
1
0
W
27.09.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Artigas
2
1
W
20.09.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Tacuarembo
0
0
D
05.09.25
Seg
Central Espanol
La Luz
4
0
W
31.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Cerrito
1
0
W
24.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Colón
0
0
D
15.08.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Oriental
3
2
W
27.07.25
Seg
Central Espanol
Fenix
0
2
L
H2H away: Central Espanol
01.06.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
1
W
13.01.26
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
0
0
D
06.10.12
H2H
Penarol
Central Espanol
3
0
L

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)