BRAZIL SERIE C
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Leonidas Sodre de Castro

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.7%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Paysandu Win 60.7%
Draw 4.8%
Santa Cruz Win 34.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paysandu1.31
Santa Cruz1.01
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paysandu Paysandu
WWDLW
17 GF / 13 GA
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz
WLDWL
9 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.7
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
0.73
8
BTTS Yes
4
6
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paysandu Paysandu 10 matches
Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 11 matches
Paysandu Statistic Santa Cruz
5 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
17 Goals For 9
13 Goals Against 8
1.7 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 0.73
8 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 5
6 Over 2.5 1
2 Over 3.5 0
1 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Santa Cruz. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Santa Cruz having the stronger overall control. Paysandu have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 17 points from 10 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 17:13 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Juninho (6 goals), Kleiton Pego (4 goals), Italo Carvalho (3 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Santa Cruz Analysis

Santa Cruz are currently 9 in the standings with 15 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 9:7 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marcos Andre (2 goals), Pedro Favela (2 goals), Edson Miranda (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Paysandu won 4 times, Santa Cruz won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:6 from Paysandu's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
H2H summary: Paysandu wins 4, draws 1, Santa Cruz wins 1
Last matches: Paysandu
14.06.26
Ser
Paysandu
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Figueirense
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Floresta
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Caxias
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Anápolis
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Botafogo PB
4
2
W
25.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
AO Itabaiana
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Barra
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Brusque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Volta Redonda
1
0
W
Last matches: Santa Cruz
14.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Brusque
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviária
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maringá
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Volta Redonda
2
0
W
11.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Guarani Campinas
0
1
L
26.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Amazonas
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Confiança
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Floresta
1
1
D
06.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
AO Itabaiana
1
0
W
08.01.26
Fri
Santa Cruz
Defensa Y Justicia
0
1
L
04.10.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
0
0
D
27.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
1
2
L
20.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
1
0
W
07.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
1
1
D
30.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
1
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Altos
0
0
D
18.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Altos
1
1
D
09.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sergipe
2
1
W
H2H: Paysandu vs Santa Cruz
05.09.21
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
1
0
W
03.07.21
H2H
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
1
2
W
11.10.20
H2H
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
2
1
L
08.08.20
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
18.11.17
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
4
2
W
01.08.17
H2H
Santa Cruz
Paysandu
1
2
W
Last matches: Paysandu
14.06.26
Ser
Paysandu
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Floresta
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Anápolis
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Botafogo PB
4
2
W
18.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Barra
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Brusque
1
1
D
H2H at home: Paysandu
05.09.21
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
1
0
W
08.08.20
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
18.11.17
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
4
2
W
Last matches: Santa Cruz
14.06.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Brusque
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maringá
1
1
D
11.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Inter De Limeira
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Guarani Campinas
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Confiança
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Santa Cruz
Floresta
1
1
D
04.10.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Barra
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Maranhão
1
0
W
07.09.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
1
1
D
24.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Altos
0
0
D
03.08.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sergipe
1
2
L
20.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Horizonte
0
2
L
06.07.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
America-RN
0
0
D
08.06.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Ferroviario
1
3
L
25.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Sousa
1
0
W
18.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Central SC
2
1
W
03.05.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz RN
0
0
D
20.04.25
Ser
Santa Cruz
Treze
1
0
W
H2H away: Santa Cruz
05.09.21
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
1
0
L
08.08.20
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
18.11.17
H2H
Paysandu
Santa Cruz
4
2
L

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 22:8 14 21
W W W L W
2 10 5 3 2 15:10 5 18
L D W L W
3 10 5 3 2 13:10 3 18
W W D W L
4 10 5 2 3 17:13 4 17
L L W L W
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L W W W
6 10 5 1 4 12:12 0 16
W L L L L
7 10 4 4 2 10:9 1 16
W D W W D
8 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D W D
9 10 4 3 3 9:7 2 15
W D D W W
10 10 4 3 3 12:11 1 15
L W L W D
11 10 4 2 4 19:21 -2 14
D L D W L
12 10 4 2 4 7:9 -2 14
W W W L D
13 10 4 2 4 10:14 -4 14
W W D L W
14 10 3 4 3 9:11 -2 13
D D D L W
15 10 3 2 5 13:16 -3 11
D L L L L
16 10 2 5 3 12:10 2 11
L D L D D
17 10 3 1 6 11:15 -4 10
D W L L L
18 10 2 1 7 4:9 -5 7
L L D W L
19 10 1 4 5 8:15 -7 7
D L D W D
20 10 1 2 7 6:14 -8 5
L D L D L
Play-offs
Relegation