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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
25.10.2026 19:45
Parc des Princes

Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Paris Saint Germain Win 52.7%
Draw 13.2%
Lyon Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paris Saint Germain1.88
Lyon1.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain
WWDLW
27 GF / 17 GA
Lyon Lyon
WLDWL
39 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
2.05
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
10
BTTS Yes
12
10
Over 2.5
13
8.1
Shots on Goal
5.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 12 matches
Lyon Lyon 19 matches
Paris Saint Germain Statistic Lyon
7 Wins 11
3 Draws 3
2 Losses 5
27 Goals For 39
17 Goals Against 25
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
10 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 18
10 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 5
1 Failed To Score 3
8.1 Shots On Goal 5.69
20.8 Total Shots 13.15
4.9 Corners 4.62
65.5% Ball Possession 51.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lyon. Paris Saint Germain come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Paris Saint Germain Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 14 points from 7 games, Paris Saint Germain bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, with a 14:9 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Ferran Torres (3 goals), Marquinhos (3 goals), O. Dembélé (1 goals), with creative support from O. Dembélé (2 assists), Ferran Torres (1 assists), Vitinha (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Lyon Analysis

Lyon arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 11 points after 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, while the 11:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Nuamah (3 goals), Z. Athekame (2 goals), C. Tolisso (1 goals), with creative support from P. Šulc (3 assists), Z. Athekame (2 assists), E. Nuamah (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paris Saint Germain won 10 times, Lyon won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:17 from Paris Saint Germain's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 / Lyon 4-3-3
H2H summary: Paris Saint Germain wins 10, draws 2, Lyon wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Lyon Away
7 4 2 1 13:5 8 14
W L W D W
2 7 4 2 1 14:9 5 14
W W W W L
3 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W L W D W
4 7 4 2 1 10:5 5 14
D W L W W
5 7 4 2 1 10:6 4 14
L D W D W
6 7 4 1 2 15:14 1 13
L W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 7:6 1 11
W W L D W
8 7 3 1 3 14:11 3 10
W W L D L
9 7 3 0 4 14:10 4 9
W W L L L
10 7 2 3 2 13:10 3 9
D W L L W
11 7 2 3 2 12:11 1 9
W D W D L
12 7 3 0 4 11:17 -6 9
W L W W L
13 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
L W W L D
14 7 2 1 4 12:15 -3 7
L L L D W
15 7 2 1 4 9:15 -6 7
L L W D L
16 7 1 3 3 10:15 -5 6
L L W D D
17 7 1 1 5 5:16 -11 4
L L L L L
18 7 0 2 5 5:11 -6 2
L L L D L
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