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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
18.10.2026 14:00
Paide linnastaadion
Referee: M. Pukk

Paide vs Trans Narva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds 1.47
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.58
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
1.47 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.58 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.08 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
6.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Paide Win 64%
Draw 16.8%
Trans Narva Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Paide1.8
Trans Narva1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Paide Paide
WWDLW
72 GF / 58 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
36 GF / 82 GA
Key Stats
1.6
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
2.1
30
BTTS Yes
20
24
Over 2.5
25
0.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Paide Paide 45 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 39 matches
Paide Statistic Trans Narva
22 Wins 6
10 Draws 9
13 Losses 24
72 Goals For 36
58 Goals Against 82
1.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 2.1
30 BTTS Yes 20
35 Over 1.5 33
24 Over 2.5 25
16 Over 3.5 13
10 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 16
0.5 Shots On Goal 0
1.67 Total Shots 0
0.83 Corners 0
10.2% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paide's more proactive style and Trans Narva's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Trans Narva. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Paide arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 51 points compared to Trans Narva in 10 on 20, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Paide Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 51 points from 29 games, Paide bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 15 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 48:36, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Trans Narva Analysis

From their first 30 matches, Trans Narva have collected 20 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 20 losses, while the 24:67 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Paide won 5 times, Trans Narva won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:16 from Paide's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
H2H summary: Paide wins 5, draws 5, Trans Narva wins 5

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 24 6 1 85:22 63 78
W W D W W
2 31 18 1 12 60:44 16 55
L L W W D
3
Paide Home
31 16 6 9 50:38 12 54
W L W W L
4 31 15 6 10 54:30 24 51
D L W W L
5 31 15 2 14 42:49 -7 47
L W L L W
6 31 13 2 16 43:47 -4 41
W W D W L
7 31 10 6 15 43:61 -18 36
D D L L L
8 31 10 5 16 34:49 -15 35
W W D L L
9 31 9 1 21 47:74 -27 28
L L L L W
10 31 5 5 21 24:68 -44 20
L D D L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga