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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
24.10.2026 23:30
Exploria Stadium

Orlando City SC vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.4%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 65.6%
Draw 4.6%
New York City FC Win 29.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.69
New York City FC1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
65 GF / 80 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
49 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.4
2.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
25
BTTS Yes
23
27
Over 2.5
17
5.03
Shots on Goal
4.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 34 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 35 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic New York City FC
13 Wins 9
6 Draws 12
15 Losses 14
65 Goals For 49
80 Goals Against 48
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
2.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
25 BTTS Yes 23
31 Over 1.5 31
27 Over 2.5 17
21 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 7
5.03 Shots On Goal 4.6
12.47 Total Shots 11.7
4 Corners 4.03
49.9% Ball Possession 54.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with New York City FC's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward New York City FC. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. New York City FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control.

Orlando City SC Analysis

So far, Orlando City SC have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 38 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 5 draws, and 13 losses, while the 54:69 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Ojeda (12 goals), A. Griezmann (8 goals), I. Angulo (6 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (7 assists), A. Griezmann (4 assists), I. Angulo (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 33 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 42:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Fernández Mercau (10 goals), H. Wolf (4 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), with creative support from A. Ojeda (8 assists), N. Fernández Mercau (4 assists), H. Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Orlando City SC won 2 times, New York City FC won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:29 from Orlando City SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-4-2 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Orlando City SC wins 2, draws 5, New York City FC wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 20 7 3 64:23 41 67
D W W W W
2 30 15 10 5 73:51 22 55
W W W L D
3 30 16 4 10 49:41 8 52
W W L L W
4 30 14 6 10 52:44 8 48
L L W W W
5 30 13 8 9 53:45 8 47
D L W L W
6 30 13 7 10 61:48 13 46
D W W W W
7 30 12 5 13 58:70 -12 41
W D W L L
8 30 10 6 14 39:56 -17 36
L L W L W
9 29 9 9 11 60:70 -10 36
L L W L D
10 30 8 12 10 46:55 -9 36
W D W L L
11 30 10 5 15 46:47 -1 35
W W L W W
12 30 8 10 12 43:41 2 34
D L L D L
13 29 7 12 10 37:51 -14 33
L W L D L
14 30 8 6 16 37:51 -14 30
L W L D W
15 30 6 7 17 36:60 -24 25
D L L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)