ECUADOR LIGA PRO
23.07.2026 21:30
Estadio 9 de Mayo
Referee: Juan Carlos Andrade Arreaga, Ecuador
Orense SC
Match Timeline
Aucas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
19'
L. Arroyo · Assist: R. Bolanos
Aucas
🟨
27'
Steven Quiñónez
Orense SC
38'
S. Vasquez · Assist: A. Herrera
Orense SC
🔄
57'
R. Bolanos ↔ P. Guzman
Aucas
58'
S. Quinonez · Assist: S. Vasquez
Orense SC
🔄
61'
R. Jaramilo ↔ E. Pluas
Orense SC
🔄
75'
M. Bermudez ↔ E. S. Zambrano Pesantez
Orense SC
🔄
75'
A. Garcia ↔ B. Carabali
Aucas
VAR
87'
Gonzalo Martin Rostagno
Orense SC
🔄
90+1'
G. Rostagno ↔ B. Vinan
Orense SC
🔄
90+2'
M. Parrales ↔ D. Quintero
Orense SC
🔄
90+1'
M. Vera ↔ T. Serpa
Aucas

Orense SC vs Aucas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.7%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-3
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orense SC Win 33.3%
Draw 19.5%
Aucas Win 47.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orense SC1.05
Aucas1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orense SC Orense SC
WWDLW
23 GF / 28 GA
Aucas Aucas
WLDWL
23 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.4
Average Goals Conceded
0.91
13
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
7
3.65
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orense SC Orense SC 20 matches
Aucas Aucas 22 matches
Orense SC Statistic Aucas
6 Wins 11
5 Draws 5
9 Losses 6
23 Goals For 23
28 Goals Against 20
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.4 Avg Goals Conceded 0.91
13 BTTS Yes 7
17 Over 1.5 10
11 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 10
5 Failed To Score 7
3.65 Shots On Goal 4.45
9.55 Total Shots 12.55
3.3 Corners 5.2
46.7% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Aucas's more proactive style and Orense SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aucas. Orense SC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Aucas carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 32 points while Orense SC sit 10 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orense SC expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Aucas in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aucas having the stronger overall control.

Orense SC Analysis

Orense SC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 23 points from 18 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:24, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Herrera (5 goals), Erick Zambrano (2 goals), Sergio Vásquez (2 goals), with creative support from Erick Zambrano (3 assists), Valentín Burgoa (2 assists), A. Herrera (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aucas Analysis

Aucas approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 32 points after 18 outings. The return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 21:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Bruno Miranda (5 goals), Andres Mena (3 goals), Snayder Porozo (3 goals), with creative support from Andres Mena (2 assists), Piero Guzmán (2 assists), Santiago Morales (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Orense SC won 3 times, Aucas won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:22 from Orense SC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.79 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
Predicted formations: Orense SC 5-3-2 / Aucas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Orense SC wins 3, draws 5, Aucas wins 6

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4
Aucas Away
30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs