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BRAZIL › SERIE B
12.10.2026 22:00
Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biase
Referee: Joao Vitor Gobi, Brazil
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
Ponte Preta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
Ronald Barcellos Arantes · Assist: Romulo Azevedo Simão
Novorizontino
⚽
25'
Juninho
Novorizontino
VAR
42'
Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas
Novorizontino
🟥
43'
Patrick Marcos de Sousa Freitas
Novorizontino
⚽
45'
Danilo · Assist: Sergio Palacios
Ponte Preta
🟨
45+1'
Gustavo Felipe Almeida
Ponte Preta
VAR
45+5'
Ronald Barcellos Arantes
Novorizontino
⚽
45+8'
Romulo Azevedo Simão
Novorizontino
🔄
45'
Danilo Barcelos ↔ Felipe Di Mauro Reis Coutinho
Ponte Preta
🔄
45'
Romulo Azevedo Simão ↔ Eduardo Brock
Novorizontino
🔄
45'
Juan Rodrigues Leopoldino ↔ Karl Vedova Junior
Ponte Preta
🟨
51'
Madson Ferreira dos Santos
Novorizontino
🟥
62'
Gustavo Felipe Almeida
Ponte Preta
🔄
67'
Ronald Barcellos Arantes ↔ Luiz Otavio Maria
Novorizontino
🔄
67'
Nicolas Morês da Cruz ↔ Maykon Kesley de Jesus Ramalho
Novorizontino
🟨
68'
Denis
Ponte Preta
🔄
69'
Rodrigo·Souza ↔ Gustavo Lopes Teles
Ponte Preta
🔄
69'
Danilo ↔ Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Ponte Preta
🔄
79'
Madson Ferreira dos Santos ↔ Alexis·Alvarino
Novorizontino
⚽
81'
Carlos Henrique de Moura Brito · Assist: Luiz Otavio Maria
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Juninho ↔ Marlon
Novorizontino
🟨
84'
Gustavo Lopes Teles
Ponte Preta
🔄
85'
David da Hora ↔ Emanuell Silva Ferreira
Ponte Preta
🟥
88'
Denis
Ponte Preta
⚽
90'
Eduardo Brock
Novorizontino
🟨
90+3'
Ryan Henrique Pereira Andrade
Ponte Preta

Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.06
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.06 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.26 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
1.02 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.40 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
6.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 88%
Draw 6%
Ponte Preta Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.87
Ponte Preta0.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
54 GF / 27 GA
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta
WLDWL
17 GF / 68 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
0.53
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
2.13
16
BTTS Yes
12
18
Over 2.5
13
5.44
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 32 matches
Ponte Preta Ponte Preta 32 matches
Novorizontino Statistic Ponte Preta
16 Wins 3
9 Draws 4
7 Losses 25
54 Goals For 17
27 Goals Against 68
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 0.53
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 2.13
16 BTTS Yes 12
23 Over 1.5 27
18 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 6
12 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 18
5.44 Shots On Goal 3
15.63 Total Shots 10.19
6.19 Corners 4.13
47.8% Ball Possession 41.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Novorizontino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 54 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Novorizontino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. Ponte Preta arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 54 points from 31 matches. The record of 15 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 52:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Robson (10 goals), Romulo (8 goals), Matheus Bianqui (5 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ponte Preta Analysis

With 13 points from 31 games and a place of 20, Ponte Preta still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 24 losses, together with goals at 17:66, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Brandão (3 goals), Elvis (2 goals), Tárik (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 15 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 6 times, Ponte Preta won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:10 from Novorizontino's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / Ponte Preta 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 6, draws 5, Ponte Preta wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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