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ENGLAND › LEAGUE TWO
24.10.2026 11:30
Sixfields Stadium

Northampton vs Colchester Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
73.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Northampton Win 55.2%
Draw 9%
Colchester Win 35.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Northampton1.05
Colchester1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Northampton Northampton
WWDLW
13 GF / 13 GA
Colchester Colchester
WLDWL
23 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.35
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
5
BTTS Yes
8
3
Over 2.5
8
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Northampton Northampton 14 matches
Colchester Colchester 17 matches
Northampton Statistic Colchester
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 7
4 Losses 6
13 Goals For 23
13 Goals Against 21
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
5 BTTS Yes 8
8 Over 1.5 12
3 Over 2.5 8
2 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 6
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.8
10.22 Total Shots 13.1
5.22 Corners 4.2
44.3% Ball Possession 54.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Colchester. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Northampton expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Colchester in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Colchester having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Northampton Analysis

With 7 points from 8 games and a place of 23, Northampton still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 4:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (2 goals), L. Briggs (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Colchester Analysis

Colchester approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 10 points from 9 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats with a 10:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Sesay (3 goals), H. Anderson (2 goals), K. Kouassi (1 goals), with creative support from O. Thorn (3 assists), M. Sesay (1 assists), E. Iandolo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Northampton won 7 times, Colchester won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:11 from Northampton's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91%)
Predicted formations: Northampton 4-4-2 / Colchester 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Northampton wins 7, draws 0, Colchester wins 2

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 1 3 17:11 6 22
W W W W W
2 9 6 3 0 22:12 10 21
W W W W D
3 11 5 6 0 15:9 6 21
W W W D D
4 10 4 4 2 18:12 6 16
D D W L W
5 10 3 7 0 13:7 6 16
D D D W D
6 11 4 4 3 16:13 3 16
L W D L W
7 11 4 3 4 17:15 2 15
L D W L W
8 11 4 3 4 17:20 -3 15
L L L W D
9 11 5 0 6 15:18 -3 15
L L L W L
10 11 3 5 3 16:15 1 14
W D W D D
11 11 3 5 3 14:13 1 14
D W D W D
12 11 3 5 3 12:11 1 14
W D L L L
13 11 4 2 5 13:15 -2 14
L D W W W
14 11 4 2 5 10:15 -5 14
W L W D D
15 11 3 4 4 13:13 0 13
L L L L W
16 11 3 4 4 6:6 0 13
D W W L D
17 11 2 6 3 14:15 -1 12
L D L D D
18 11 3 3 5 10:15 -5 12
D L L D L
19 10 3 2 5 13:14 -1 11
W D L L L
20 10 2 5 3 10:13 -3 11
D L D D D
21 9 3 2 4 5:9 -4 11
W W L W L
22 9 2 4 3 6:7 -1 10
W D L L W
23 11 2 4 5 12:18 -6 10
L L L D W
24 9 1 2 6 9:17 -8 5
L D L L L
Promotion - League One
Promotion - League Two (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation - National League