BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Alfredo de Castilho
Noroeste
Match Timeline
Nova Iguaçu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
Marlyson
Noroeste
🟥
45+5'
Nova Iguaçu
Nova Iguaçu
🟥
45+5'
Noroeste
Noroeste
71'
Joao Pedro
Nova Iguaçu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 83.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
83.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Noroeste Win 39.6%
Draw 16.5%
Nova Iguaçu Win 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
Noroeste1.6
Nova Iguaçu0.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Noroeste Noroeste
WWDLW
2 GF / 3 GA
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu
WLDWL
1 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.5
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
2.5
1
BTTS Yes
1
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Noroeste Noroeste 2 matches
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 2 matches
Noroeste Statistic Nova Iguaçu
0 Wins 0
1 Draws 0
1 Losses 2
2 Goals For 1
3 Goals Against 5
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 2.5
1 BTTS Yes 1
1 Over 1.5 1
1 Over 2.5 1
1 Over 3.5 1
0 Clean Sheets 0
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nova Iguaçu. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nova Iguaçu having the stronger overall control.

Noroeste Analysis

Noroeste arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 1 points after 2 matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 2:3 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Marlyson (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nova Iguaçu Analysis

Nova Iguaçu sit 6 with 0 points after 2 league matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 1:5 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Xandinho (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Noroeste won 0 times, Nova Iguaçu won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Noroeste's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.5%)
H2H summary: Noroeste wins 0, draws 1, Nova Iguaçu wins 1
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
21.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
07.06.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
H2H: Noroeste vs Nova Iguaçu
23.05.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
L
18.04.26
H2H
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
Last matches: Noroeste
28.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Portuguesa RJ
1
3
L
07.06.26
Ser
Noroeste
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
Velo Clube
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Noroeste
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Noroeste
XV de Piracicaba
2
2
D
H2H at home: Noroeste
18.04.26
H2H
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
03.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
19.04.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
H2H away: Nova Iguaçu
18.04.26
H2H
Noroeste
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)