NIGERIA NPFL
--.--.---- --:--
Bako Kontagora Stadium
Niger Tornadoes
Match Timeline
Kwara United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
A. Dabai
Niger Tornadoes
27'
B. Bright
Kwara United
🟨
32'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🟨
32'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🟨
33'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🟥
33'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🟨
55'
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
🟨
55'
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
62'
A. Akanni
Kwara United
🔄
63'
A. Dalhatu ↔ J. Godfrey
Niger Tornadoes
🔄
63'
T. Shimagande ↔ R. Mendos
Niger Tornadoes
🟨
65'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🔄
76'
A. Dabai ↔ T. Lawal
Niger Tornadoes
🔄
76'
L. Ahmadu ↔ B. Usman
Niger Tornadoes
86'
I. Sarki
Niger Tornadoes
🟨
90+3'
Kwara United
Kwara United
🟨
90+6'
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
🟨
90+10'
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes
🟥
90+10'
Niger Tornadoes
Niger Tornadoes

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Niger Tornadoes Win 62.1%
Draw 14.6%
Kwara United Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Niger Tornadoes0.93
Kwara United0.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Niger Tornadoes Niger Tornadoes
WWDLW
34 GF / 34 GA
Kwara United Kwara United
WLDWL
31 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
0.89
0.97
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
9
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Niger Tornadoes Niger Tornadoes 35 matches
Kwara United Kwara United 35 matches
Niger Tornadoes Statistic Kwara United
12 Wins 12
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 13
34 Goals For 31
34 Goals Against 30
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
0.97 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
9 BTTS Yes 12
21 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 4
15 Clean Sheets 13
15 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kwara United. Niger Tornadoes have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kwara United having the stronger overall control.

Niger Tornadoes Analysis

Niger Tornadoes sit 14 with 43 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 16 defeats with a 34:34 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Dabai (6 goals), A. Dalhatu (6 goals), T. Shimagande (6 goals), with creative support from A. Dabai (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kwara United Analysis

With 43 points from 35 games and a place of 15, Kwara United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 28:30, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Aule (6 goals), J. Aimufua (4 goals), B. Bright (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Ibrahim (1 assists), P. Ozor (1 assists), V. Adeoye (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Niger Tornadoes won 4 times, Kwara United won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:12 from Niger Tornadoes's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
H2H summary: Niger Tornadoes wins 4, draws 4, Kwara United wins 4

Lineups

Niger Tornadoes
Formation
Kwara United
I. Nchekwube
I. Nchekwube
A. Khalid
A. Khalid
I. Saidu
I. Saidu
I. Sabiu
I. Sabiu
S. Akinmoladun
S. Akinmoladun
A. Family
A. Family
A. Dabai
A. Dabai
A. Dalhatu
A. Dalhatu
L. Ahmadu
L. Ahmadu
T. Shimagande
T. Shimagande
I. Sarki
I. Sarki
S. Ayeleso
S. Ayeleso
Y. Ibrahim
Y. Ibrahim
A. Ogbonna
A. Ogbonna
A. Olanrewaju
A. Olanrewaju
M. Kabiru
M. Kabiru
G. Abutu
G. Abutu
A. Akanni
A. Akanni
A. Shola
A. Shola
T. Gidado
T. Gidado
B. Bright
B. Bright
J. Aimufua
J. Aimufua
Niger Tornadoes 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
I. Nchekwube
18
A. Khalid
12
I. Saidu
4
I. Sabiu
5
S. Akinmoladun
15
A. Family
7
A. Dabai
⚽ 26' ↓ 76'
20
A. Dalhatu
↓ 63'
13
L. Ahmadu
↓ 76'
24
T. Shimagande
↓ 63'
9
I. Sarki
⚽ 86'
Substitutes
35
A. Suleiman
3
M. Goyi
14
I. Okoye
11
T. Lawal
↑ 76'
38
J. Godfrey
↑ 63'
40
R. Mendos
↑ 63'
30
J. Godwin
32
B. Usman
↑ 76'
19
M. Nelson
Kwara United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
S. Ayeleso
25
Y. Ibrahim
34
A. Ogbonna
15
A. Olanrewaju
12
M. Kabiru
6
G. Abutu
3
A. Akanni
⚽ 62'
8
A. Shola
20
T. Gidado
2
B. Bright
⚽ 27'
14
J. Aimufua
Substitutes
B. Nurudeen
M. Afeez
A. Gata
M. Alao
A. Abdulsalam
S. Mohammed
Last matches: Niger Tornadoes
24.05.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Shooting Stars
1
0
W
10.05.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
El Kanemi Warriors
0
0
D
19.04.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Remo Stars
0
3
L
12.04.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Enugu Rangers
0
0
D
05.04.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Katsina United
0
1
L
29.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Wikki Tourist
2
0
W
23.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Abia Warriors
1
2
L
19.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Rivers United
1
0
W
15.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Kano Pillars
0
0
D
08.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Plateau United
0
3
L
01.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Warri Wolves
0
0
D
22.02.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Kun Khalifat FC
0
2
L
08.02.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Ikorodu City
0
2
L
01.02.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Bendel Insurance
2
2
D
29.01.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Bayelsa United
0
0
D
25.01.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Enyimba
2
0
W
18.01.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Nasarawa United
1
2
L
14.01.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Barau FC
1
2
L
28.12.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Barau FC
2
0
W
21.12.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Shooting Stars
1
2
L
Last matches: Kwara United
24.05.26
NPF
Kwara United
Bayelsa United
0
4
L
10.05.26
NPF
Kwara United
Enyimba
2
0
W
19.04.26
NPF
Kwara United
Barau FC
2
1
W
12.04.26
NPF
Kwara United
Shooting Stars
0
0
D
05.04.26
NPF
Kwara United
El Kanemi Warriors
3
0
W
28.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Nasarawa United
1
0
W
22.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Remo Stars
1
3
L
15.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Enugu Rangers
0
0
D
08.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Katsina United
2
1
W
28.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Wikki Tourist
1
0
W
22.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Abia Warriors
0
1
L
18.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Rivers United
1
1
D
15.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Kano Pillars
1
1
D
08.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Plateau United
0
1
L
02.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Warri Wolves
2
1
W
29.01.26
NPF
Kwara United
Kun Khalifat FC
0
1
L
18.01.26
NPF
Kwara United
Ikorodu City
0
1
L
14.01.26
NPF
Kwara United
Bendel Insurance
0
1
L
27.12.25
NPF
Kwara United
Bendel Insurance
0
2
L
21.12.25
NPF
Kwara United
Bayelsa United
2
0
W
H2H: Niger Tornadoes vs Kwara United
03.05.26
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
2
D
07.12.25
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
2
0
L
30.01.25
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
1
W
08.09.24
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
1
2
W
02.06.24
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D
17.12.23
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
0
0
D
25.06.22
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
4
0
W
27.02.22
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
1
0
L
26.05.19
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
0
1
L
20.02.19
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
2
0
L
13.05.18
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D
14.01.18
H2H
Kwara United
Niger Tornadoes
0
2
W
Last matches: Niger Tornadoes
24.05.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Shooting Stars
1
0
W
12.04.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Enugu Rangers
0
0
D
29.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Wikki Tourist
2
0
W
19.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Rivers United
1
0
W
15.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Kano Pillars
0
0
D
01.03.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Warri Wolves
0
0
D
01.02.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Bendel Insurance
2
2
D
25.01.26
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Enyimba
2
0
W
28.12.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Barau FC
2
0
W
14.12.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
El Kanemi Warriors
3
0
W
29.11.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Remo Stars
1
0
W
16.11.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Katsina United
2
0
W
02.11.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Abia Warriors
1
2
L
19.10.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Plateau United
4
0
W
05.10.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Kun Khalifat FC
1
1
D
21.09.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Ikorodu City
4
2
W
07.09.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Bayelsa United
1
0
W
27.08.25
NPF
Niger Tornadoes
Nasarawa United
1
0
W
H2H at home: Niger Tornadoes
03.05.26
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
2
D
30.01.25
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
1
W
02.06.24
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D
25.06.22
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
4
0
W
26.05.19
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
0
1
L
13.05.18
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D
Last matches: Kwara United
24.05.26
NPF
Kwara United
Bayelsa United
0
4
L
12.04.26
NPF
Kwara United
Shooting Stars
0
0
D
22.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Remo Stars
1
3
L
08.03.26
NPF
Kwara United
Katsina United
2
1
W
22.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Abia Warriors
0
1
L
08.02.26
NPF
Kwara United
Plateau United
0
1
L
29.01.26
NPF
Kwara United
Kun Khalifat FC
0
1
L
18.01.26
NPF
Kwara United
Ikorodu City
0
1
L
27.12.25
NPF
Kwara United
Bendel Insurance
0
2
L
14.12.25
NPF
Kwara United
Enyimba
1
3
L
30.11.25
NPF
Kwara United
Barau FC
2
3
L
16.11.25
NPF
Kwara United
El Kanemi Warriors
0
2
L
09.11.25
NPF
Kwara United
Nasarawa United
1
1
D
26.10.25
NPF
Kwara United
Enugu Rangers
0
0
D
12.10.25
NPF
Kwara United
Wikki Tourist
1
1
D
08.10.25
NPF
Kwara United
Kano Pillars
0
1
L
14.09.25
NPF
Kwara United
Warri Wolves
0
0
D
31.08.25
NPF
Kwara United
Rivers United
0
1
L
H2H away: Kwara United
03.05.26
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
2
D
30.01.25
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
2
1
L
02.06.24
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D
25.06.22
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
4
0
L
26.05.19
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
0
1
W
13.05.18
H2H
Niger Tornadoes
Kwara United
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 19 11 8 47:27 20 68
W W W W D
2 38 19 10 9 44:31 13 67
W W W L W
3 38 18 6 14 41:40 1 60
L W W W D
4 38 16 10 12 43:39 4 58
L L W L W
5 38 16 8 14 37:34 3 56
L W L W L
6 38 16 7 15 31:34 -3 55
L L L W L
7 37 13 14 10 43:38 5 53
D L W W W
8 38 13 13 12 34:30 4 52
W L W L W
9 37 14 10 13 36:38 -2 52
L W L W L
10 38 15 6 17 37:39 -2 51
L W L W L
11 38 15 5 18 39:40 -1 50
W L L D L
12 38 13 11 14 35:36 -1 50
L W D W D
13 38 13 10 15 44:42 2 49
W L W L W
14 38 13 10 15 42:43 -1 49
W W W D W
15 38 13 10 15 36:41 -5 49
W L W L L
16 38 13 9 16 37:36 1 48
W D D L D
17 38 14 5 19 42:47 -5 47
D W L W L
18 38 13 8 17 30:46 -16 47
L D L L W
19 38 11 10 17 37:42 -5 43
W L L L L
20 38 9 13 16 36:48 -12 40
L L L L W
Champions League
CAF Confederation Cup
Relegation