ECUADOR LIGA PRO
16.08.2026 00:00
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Anthony Diaz, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Barcelona SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
8'
Elian Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
56'
E. Caicedo ↔ N. Bazan
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
63'
J. Cusme ↔ F. Carabali
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
63'
M. Perea ↔ R. Tufino
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
63'
J. R. Quinonez Ruiz ↔ J. Garcia
Barcelona SC
🔄
63'
J. Wila ↔ M. Mejia
Barcelona SC
🔄
63'
T. Martinez ↔ S. Diaz
Barcelona SC
🟨
66'
Ronny Biojo
Mushuc Runa SC
🟥
70'
Renso Tufino
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
84'
R. Ibarra ↔ B. Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
84'
A. Zambrano ↔ F. Mina
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
84'
T. Rodriguez ↔ E. Mendoza
Barcelona SC
🔄
90'
J. Perlaza ↔ H. Villalba
Barcelona SC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Barcelona SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
90.5%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 49.2%
Draw 9.5%
Barcelona SC Win 41.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.2
Barcelona SC1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
32 GF / 34 GA
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC
WLDWL
35 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
13
4.04
Shots on Goal
3.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 24 matches
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 38 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Barcelona SC
8 Wins 14
7 Draws 10
9 Losses 14
32 Goals For 35
34 Goals Against 38
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 22
14 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 13
5 Failed To Score 12
4.04 Shots On Goal 3.35
12.92 Total Shots 12.21
4.92 Corners 3.91
48.3% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Barcelona SC's more proactive style and Mushuc Runa SC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Barcelona SC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Barcelona SC having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Barcelona SC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC sit 10 with 28 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 29:34 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronie Carrillo (6 goals), Kevin Velasco (2 goals), Cristopher Angulo (2 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Barcelona SC Analysis

Barcelona SC come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 35 points from 24 matches. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 25:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Darío Benedetto (4 goals), Jhonny Quiñónez (2 goals), Milton Celiz (2 goals), with creative support from Tomás Martínez (2 assists), Darío Benedetto (1 assists), Jhonny Quiñónez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 1 times, Barcelona SC won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:31 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 1, draws 5, Barcelona SC wins 9

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 23 2 4 70:31 39 71
W L D W W
2 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
3 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
4 29 13 9 7 49:26 23 48
W D D W D
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 29 11 10 8 31:24 7 43
D W L W D
7 29 11 8 10 31:31 0 41
W D L W D
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L W D W L
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 29 9 6 14 35:45 -10 33
W L L L W
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 29 7 6 16 18:30 -12 27
L W L L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs