ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
17.05.2026 16:30
St. James' Park
Referee: J. Gillett
Newcastle
Match Timeline
West Ham
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
N. Woltemade · Assist: H. Barnes
Newcastle
19'
W. Osula · Assist: J. Ramsey
Newcastle
🔄
26'
J. Todibo ↔ T. Castellanos
West Ham
🔄
53'
S. Tonali ↔ J. Willock
Newcastle
🟨
59'
Tomáš Souček
West Ham
🔄
63'
A. Wan-Bissaka ↔ Pablo
West Ham
🔄
63'
T. Soucek ↔ M. Kante
West Ham
65'
W. Osula · Assist: J. Willock
Newcastle
🟨
67'
El Hadji Malick Diouf
West Ham
69'
T. Castellanos · Assist: M. Hermansen
West Ham
🔄
75'
N. Woltemade ↔ D. Burn
Newcastle
🔄
75'
H. Barnes ↔ J. Murphy
Newcastle
🟨
80'
Mohamadou Kanté
West Ham
🟨
83'
Lewis Hall
Newcastle
🔄
85'
W. Osula ↔ Y. Wissa
Newcastle
🔄
85'
K. Trippier ↔ A. Elanga
Newcastle

Newcastle vs West Ham Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Newcastle Win 58.3%
Draw 20.2%
West Ham Win 21.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Newcastle1.67
West Ham1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Newcastle Newcastle
WWDLW
85 GF / 76 GA
West Ham West Ham
WLDWL
49 GF / 67 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.23
1.49
Average Goals Conceded
1.68
35
BTTS Yes
22
35
Over 2.5
24
5.1
Shots on Goal
3.7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Newcastle Newcastle 51 matches
West Ham West Ham 40 matches
Newcastle Statistic West Ham
20 Wins 11
11 Draws 11
20 Losses 18
85 Goals For 49
76 Goals Against 67
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
1.49 Avg Goals Conceded 1.68
35 BTTS Yes 22
42 Over 1.5 34
35 Over 2.5 24
20 Over 3.5 12
12 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 13
5.1 Shots On Goal 3.7
13.43 Total Shots 11.25
5.8 Corners 5.43
51.6% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Newcastle expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and West Ham in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward West Ham having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Newcastle have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors West Ham. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Newcastle Analysis

Newcastle sit 13 with 46 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 50:52, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Bruno Guimarães (9 goals), N. Woltemade (8 goals), H. Barnes (7 goals), with creative support from Bruno Guimarães (5 assists), L. Miley (4 assists), N. Woltemade (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 9 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

West Ham Analysis

West Ham sit 18 with 36 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 18 defeats, and the 42:62 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Bowen (8 goals), C. Wilson (6 goals), C. Summerville (5 goals), with creative support from J. Bowen (10 assists), M. Diouf (5 assists), M. Fernandes (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle won 8 times, West Ham won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:24 from Newcastle's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.8%)
Predicted formations: Newcastle 4-2-3-1 / West Ham 4-4-1-1
Missing players: Newcastle 5, West Ham 2
H2H summary: Newcastle wins 8, draws 4, West Ham wins 3

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship