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MEXICO › LIGA MX
24.10.2026 01:00
Estadio Victoria

Necaxa vs FC Juarez Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
63.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Necaxa Win 21.7%
Draw 63.3%
FC Juarez Win 15.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Necaxa1.72
FC Juarez1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Necaxa Necaxa
WWDLW
24 GF / 29 GA
FC Juarez FC Juarez
WLDWL
20 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
2.18
12
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
4.83
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Necaxa Necaxa 17 matches
FC Juarez FC Juarez 17 matches
Necaxa Statistic FC Juarez
5 Wins 4
5 Draws 3
7 Losses 10
24 Goals For 20
29 Goals Against 37
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 2.18
12 BTTS Yes 10
13 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 5
4.83 Shots On Goal 2.67
14.75 Total Shots 9.25
5.58 Corners 3.92
49.4% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Juarez. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Necaxa expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and FC Juarez in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Juarez having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Necaxa Analysis

Necaxa sit 17 with 9 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 15:23, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Carranza (5 goals), M. Espíndola (2 goals), Owen de Jesús González Ojeda (2 goals), with creative support from J. Carranza (1 assists), M. Espíndola (1 assists), Juan Valencia (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

FC Juarez Analysis

With 4 points from 11 games and a place of 18, FC Juarez still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 8:26 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Ó. Estupiñán (4 goals), J. Rodríguez (1 goals), Rodrigo Dourado (1 goals), with creative support from J. Rodríguez (1 assists), D. Piña (1 assists), J. Torres (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Necaxa won 5 times, FC Juarez won 3 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Necaxa's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.14 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (84.9%)
Predicted formations: Necaxa 4-1-4-1 / FC Juarez 5-3-2
H2H summary: Necaxa wins 5, draws 6, FC Juarez wins 3

Standings

Liga MX: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 3 1 27:14 13 24
W D W D L
2 12 6 3 3 26:16 10 21
D L D L W
3 12 6 3 3 19:18 1 21
W D W D L
4 12 5 5 2 19:12 7 20
D D L D W
5 12 6 2 4 27:21 6 20
W D D L W
6 11 6 2 3 15:13 2 20
L W W D W
7 12 5 3 4 18:17 1 18
L D W D W
8 11 5 2 4 19:16 3 17
W D L W D
9 12 5 1 6 17:16 1 16
W W W W W
10 11 4 4 3 15:14 1 16
D D L D L
11 12 4 4 4 19:20 -1 16
W D L D L
12 12 4 4 4 12:13 -1 16
D D L D L
13 12 3 5 4 14:16 -2 14
D W W L D
14 12 3 4 5 19:16 3 13
L D L D W
15 12 3 4 5 16:21 -5 13
D L W W L
16 12 2 5 5 13:19 -6 11
L L W D L
17 12 2 3 7 15:25 -10 9
L D L L L
18 12 1 1 10 8:31 -23 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs: Quarter-finals)