UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
MTN Omondi Stadium
NEC
Match Timeline
SC Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
C. Lwanga
SC Villa
17'
C. Lwanga
SC Villa
34'
G. Gagganga
SC Villa
🟥
82'
F. Matovu
SC Villa
🟨
82'
F. Matovu
SC Villa
87'
H. Mubiru
SC Villa
90'
E. Kulanga
NEC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 91.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 64.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 67%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
91.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
64.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
67%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
NEC Win 47.7%
Draw 8.8%
SC Villa Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
NEC0.82
SC Villa1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
NEC NEC
WWDLW
27 GF / 16 GA
SC Villa SC Villa
WLDWL
38 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.41
0.59
Average Goals Conceded
0.56
10
BTTS Yes
9
5
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

NEC NEC 27 matches
SC Villa SC Villa 27 matches
NEC Statistic SC Villa
12 Wins 15
12 Draws 7
3 Losses 5
27 Goals For 38
16 Goals Against 15
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
0.59 Avg Goals Conceded 0.56
10 BTTS Yes 9
11 Over 1.5 15
5 Over 2.5 9
3 Over 3.5 3
16 Clean Sheets 15
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward SC Villa having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward SC Villa. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

NEC Analysis

From their first 27 matches, NEC have collected 48 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 12 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 27:16 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Dhata (3 goals), H. Sebwalunyo (2 goals), J. Seremba (2 goals), with creative support from H. Sebwalunyo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

SC Villa Analysis

SC Villa come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 55 points after 28 matches. The return of 16 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 41:15, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through F. Ssebuufu (8 goals), N. Yiga (7 goals), C. Lwanga (4 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, NEC won 2 times, SC Villa won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:12 from NEC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.2%)
H2H summary: NEC wins 2, draws 0, SC Villa wins 4
Last matches: NEC
23.05.26
Pre
NEC
Calvary
0
2
L
09.05.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
0
W
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
21.04.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
NEC
Police
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.03.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
2
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
17.02.26
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
NEC
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
16.12.25
Pre
NEC
UPDF
0
0
D
12.12.25
Pre
NEC
KCCA
1
2
L
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
H2H: NEC vs SC Villa
20.05.26
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
20.11.25
H2H
SC Villa
NEC
2
1
L
14.05.25
H2H
SC Villa
NEC
0
1
W
29.11.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
2
1
W
18.05.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
0
2
L
29.09.23
H2H
SC Villa
NEC
3
0
L
Last matches: NEC
24.04.26
Pre
NEC
Mbarara City
0
0
D
18.04.26
Pre
NEC
Maroons
1
0
W
09.04.26
Pre
NEC
URA
1
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
NEC
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
03.03.26
Pre
NEC
UPDF
1
0
W
13.02.26
Pre
NEC
KCCA
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
NEC
Express
0
0
D
24.01.26
Pre
NEC
Kitara
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
NEC
Lugazi
1
0
W
05.12.25
Pre
NEC
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
NEC
Calvary
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pre
NEC
BUL
1
1
D
18.10.25
Pre
NEC
Police
2
2
D
H2H at home: NEC
20.05.26
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
L
29.11.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
2
1
W
18.05.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
0
2
L
Last matches: SC Villa
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
1
0
W
31.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
2
L
H2H away: SC Villa
20.05.26
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
1
4
W
29.11.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
2
1
L
18.05.24
H2H
NEC
SC Villa
0
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6
NEC Home
30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League