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BRAZIL › SERIE B
08.10.2026 22:30
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: Savio Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Nicolas Careca · Assist: Luis Oyama
Novorizontino
⚽
14'
Romulo
Novorizontino
🟨
18'
Reidiney
Novorizontino
🟨
21'
Betão
Nautico Recife
🟨
25'
Todinho
Nautico Recife
🔄
32'
Matheus Bianqui ↔ Leo Naldi
Novorizontino
🔄
35'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
38'
Junior Todinho ↔ B. Borasi
Nautico Recife
🟨
45+2'
Léo Índio
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Leo Indio ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Derek ↔ Kaua Maranhao
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Reidiney ↔ Helio Borges
Novorizontino
🔄
59'
Nicolas Careca ↔ Maykon Jesus
Novorizontino
🔄
59'
Gabriel Bahia ↔ Carlinhos
Novorizontino
🟨
64'
Leo Naldi
Novorizontino
🔄
68'
Samuel Felix ↔ P. Nunez
Nautico Recife
🔄
73'
Arnaldo ↔ Paulo Sergio
Nautico Recife

Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 83.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
83.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 42.8%
Draw 6.1%
Novorizontino Win 51.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.1
Novorizontino1.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
39 GF / 38 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
52 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
0.87
15
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
18
4.58
Shots on Goal
5.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 31 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 31 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Novorizontino
11 Wins 15
9 Draws 9
11 Losses 7
39 Goals For 52
38 Goals Against 27
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 0.87
15 BTTS Yes 16
20 Over 1.5 22
13 Over 2.5 18
6 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 8
4.58 Shots On Goal 5.45
16 Total Shots 15.74
6 Corners 6.26
57.1% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Novorizontino. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 54 points while Nautico Recife sit 13 on 42, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nautico Recife Analysis

So far, Nautico Recife have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 42 points from 31 matches. The record of 11 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 39:38 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vinícius (7 goals), Jean Carlos (3 goals), Júnior Todinho (3 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (3 assists), Jean Carlos (3 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 54 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 52:27 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Robson (10 goals), Romulo (8 goals), Matheus Bianqui (5 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 1 times, Novorizontino won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:9 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 1, draws 1, Novorizontino wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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