BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Aflitos
Referee: E. Batista
Nautico Recife
Match Timeline
Cuiaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
David
Cuiaba
🟨
44'
Igor Fernandes
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Kauan Cristtyan ↔ Rodrigo Rodrigues
Cuiaba
🔄
46'
Mateus Santos ↔ Pepe
Cuiaba
🔄
46'
Nino Paraiba ↔ Raylan
Cuiaba
🔄
58'
Victor Andrade ↔ Junior Todinho
Nautico Recife
🔄
58'
Mateus Silva ↔ Yuri
Nautico Recife
🟨
62'
Wenderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
63'
Weverson ↔ Y. Asad
Cuiaba
🔄
64'
Dodo ↔ Vitinho
Nautico Recife
🟨
71'
Todinho
Nautico Recife
71'
Junior Todinho · Assist: Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
🟨
74'
Raul
Cuiaba
🔄
77'
Betao ↔ Wanderson
Nautico Recife
🔄
77'
Luiz Felipe ↔ Leonai Souza
Nautico Recife
🔄
80'
David Miguel ↔ Victor Barbara
Cuiaba

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 55.4%
Draw 13.4%
Cuiaba Win 31.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.18
Cuiaba0.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
15 GF / 9 GA
Cuiaba Cuiaba
WLDWL
4 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
0.44
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.44
3
BTTS Yes
2
4
Over 2.5
0
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 9 matches
Cuiaba Cuiaba 9 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Cuiaba
5 Wins 1
1 Draws 7
3 Losses 1
15 Goals For 4
9 Goals Against 4
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.44
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.44
3 BTTS Yes 2
5 Over 1.5 4
4 Over 2.5 0
2 Over 3.5 0
3 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 6
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.89
14.44 Total Shots 12.22
5.22 Corners 3.22
57.2% Ball Possession 47.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Nautico Recife's more proactive style and Cuiaba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nautico Recife expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Cuiaba in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cuiaba having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cuiaba. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nautico Recife arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 16 points compared to Cuiaba in 16 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 16 points after 9 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 15:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Vinícius (5 goals), Dodo (2 goals), Victor Andrade (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Cuiaba Analysis

Cuiaba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 10 points from 9 matches. Their record of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, together with goals at 4:4, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Hernandes (2 goals), Eric (1 goals), Joao Basso (1 goals), with creative support from Hernandes (1 assists), Eliel (1 assists), Pepê (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 4 times, Cuiaba won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:2 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Cuiaba 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 4, draws 0, Cuiaba wins 1
Stats
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Cuiaba Cuiaba
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 1
16 Fouls 20
3 Offsides 2
67% Ball Possession 33%
10 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 4
3 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
515 Total passes 259
426 Passes accurate 182
1.56 expected_goals 0.38
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nautico Recife
Formation
Cuiaba
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Reginaldo
Reginaldo
Mateus Silva
Mateus Silva
Betao
Betao
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Luiz Felipe
🎯
Luiz Felipe
Wenderson
Wenderson
Vinicius
Vinicius
Dodo
Dodo
Victor Andrade
Victor Andrade
Paulo Sergio
Paulo Sergio
Marcelo Carne
Marcelo Carne
Joao Basso
Joao Basso
Calebe Costa
Calebe Costa
Eric Melo
Eric Melo
Nino Paraiba
Nino Paraiba
Raul
Raul
David Miguel
David Miguel
Marlon
Marlon
Weverson
Weverson
Mateus Santos
Mateus Santos
Kauan Cristtyan
Kauan Cristtyan
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
93
Reginaldo
D
25
Mateus Silva
↓ 58'
D
3
Betao
↓ 77'
D
23
Igor Fernandes
🟨 44'
D
27
Luiz Felipe
🎯 71' ↓ 77'
M
8
Wenderson
🟨 62'
M
7
Vinicius
M
10
Dodo
↓ 64'
M
11
Victor Andrade
↓ 58'
M
9
Paulo Sergio
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
34
Wanderson
↑ 77'
D
30
Felipe Cardoso
M
41
Samuel Felix
M
16
Luiz Claudio
F
2
Arnaldo
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
D
29
Junior Todinho
⚽ 71' ↑ 58' 🟨 71'
F
6
Yuri
↑ 58'
D
40
Ramon
M
19
Leonai Souza
↑ 77'
M
22
Vitinho
↑ 64'
M
Cuiaba 3-4-3
Starting XI
31
Marcelo Carne
G
13
Joao Basso
D
5
Calebe Costa
D
14
Eric Melo
D
2
Nino Paraiba
↓ 46'
M
30
Raul
🟨 74'
M
88
David Miguel
↓ 80' 🟨 31'
M
6
Marlon
M
53
Weverson
↓ 63'
F
19
Mateus Santos
↓ 46'
F
41
Kauan Cristtyan
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
1
Joao Carlos
G
27
Rodrigo Rodrigues
↑ 46'
F
8
Pepe
↑ 46'
M
44
Gabriel Knesowitsch
D
91
Luis Soares
D
7
Y. Asad
↑ 63'
F
37
Raylan
↑ 46'
M
17
Victor Barbara
↑ 80'
M
29
Vinicius Peixoto
F
50
P. Felipetto Colen Barcellos
M
Last matches: Nautico Recife
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
Last matches: Cuiaba
31.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
CRB
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Novorizontino
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
02.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Ceara
0
2
L
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Sport Recife
0
0
D
H2H: Nautico Recife vs Cuiaba
22.05.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
23.12.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
0
W
30.09.20
H2H
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
15.03.18
H2H
Cuiaba
Nautico Recife
0
1
W
28.02.18
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
1
W
Last matches: Nautico Recife
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H at home: Nautico Recife
22.05.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
23.12.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
0
W
28.02.18
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
1
W
Last matches: Cuiaba
09.05.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Athletic Club
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Goias
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Operario-PR
0
0
D
31.03.26
Ser
Cuiaba
Fortaleza EC
0
0
D
H2H away: Cuiaba
22.05.26
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
L
23.12.20
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
0
L
28.02.18
H2H
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
2
1
L

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 7 4 1 18:11 7 25
W W W W L
2 12 7 3 2 20:10 10 24
W D W D W
3 11 6 4 1 15:7 8 22
W W L W W
4 12 5 5 2 14:10 4 20
W W D D D
5 11 6 1 4 16:11 5 19
L W W W D
6 12 5 4 3 14:15 -1 19
W W D L L
7 11 5 3 3 14:11 3 18
L W L D W
8 11 5 2 4 12:13 -1 17
D W W W L
9 11 4 5 2 14:11 3 17
D W D W D
10 11 4 5 2 13:11 2 17
W W D D D
11 12 4 4 4 10:8 2 16
L W L D D
12 12 4 4 4 12:12 0 16
W D L D W
13 12 4 2 6 19:20 -1 14
L L W W W
14 11 3 4 4 12:13 -1 13
L L W L L
15 11 2 7 2 6:5 1 13
W L D D D
16 12 2 4 6 11:12 -1 10
L D L L L
17 11 2 4 5 11:15 -4 10
L L L D D
18 12 2 2 8 12:20 -8 8
L L L W L
19 11 2 2 7 9:20 -11 8
D L L L L
20 12 0 3 9 7:24 -17 3
L L L D L