FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade de la Beaujoire
Referee: J. Pignard
Nantes
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Matthis Abline
Nantes
🔄
26'
D. Machado ↔ M. Acapandie
Nantes
🟨
31'
Quinten Timber
Marseille
🔄
46'
P. Aubameyang ↔ E. Lago
Marseille
🔄
46'
Q. Timber ↔ I. Paixao
Marseille
🟨
49'
Ange Lago
Marseille
50'
I. Ganago · Assist: M. Abline
Nantes
54'
R. Cabella · Assist: I. Ganago
Nantes
58'
M. Abline · Assist: M. Kaba
Nantes
🔄
65'
A. Vermeeren ↔ A. Gouiri
Marseille
🔄
69'
M. Kaba ↔ F. Coquelin
Nantes
🔄
69'
R. Cabella ↔ L. Leroux
Nantes
🔄
79'
F. Guilbert ↔ Ali Youssef
Nantes
🔄
79'
I. Sissoko ↔ U. Radakovic
Nantes
🟨
81'
Facundo Medina
Marseille
🔄
88'
L. Balerdi ↔ H. Hamzaoui
Marseille
🔄
90+4'
H. J. Traore ↔ U. Lamare El Kadmiri
Marseille

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 44.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
44.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nantes Win 27.7%
Draw 12.2%
Marseille Win 60.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nantes1.11
Marseille1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nantes Nantes
WWDLW
32 GF / 55 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
90 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
0.97
Average Goals Scored
2.09
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
17
BTTS Yes
21
15
Over 2.5
30
3.39
Shots on Goal
5.72

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nantes Nantes 33 matches
Marseille Marseille 43 matches
Nantes Statistic Marseille
5 Wins 22
9 Draws 6
19 Losses 15
32 Goals For 90
55 Goals Against 57
0.97 Avg Goals Scored 2.09
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
17 BTTS Yes 21
23 Over 1.5 34
15 Over 2.5 30
8 Over 3.5 18
6 Clean Sheets 12
13 Failed To Score 10
3.39 Shots On Goal 5.72
11.03 Total Shots 14.79
3.42 Corners 5.33
42.9% Ball Possession 57.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Marseille's more proactive style and Nantes's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Marseille arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Marseille. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nantes expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Marseille in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Marseille carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 53 points while Nantes sit 17 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Nantes Analysis

Nantes sit 17 with 20 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 19 defeats with a 26:51 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Abline (5 goals), Mostafa Mohamed (4 goals), Fabien Centonze (3 goals), with creative support from M. Abline (3 assists), Chidozie Awaziem (2 assists), B. Guirassy (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille sit 6 with 53 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 16 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 59:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nantes won 4 times, Marseille won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:21 from Nantes's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.8%)
Predicted formations: Nantes 4-1-4-1 / Marseille 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nantes wins 4, draws 3, Marseille wins 8
Stats
Nantes Nantes
Marseille Marseille
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
4
7 Corner Kicks 8
12 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 1
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Goal 8
6 Shots off Goal 4
5 Blocked Shots 4
13 Shots insidebox 11
4 Shots outsidebox 5
8 Goalkeeper Saves 2
327 Total passes 454
260 Passes accurate 386
3.42 expected_goals 1.36
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nantes
Formation
Marseille
P. Carlgren
P. Carlgren
F. Guilbert
F. Guilbert
C. Awaziem
C. Awaziem
N. Cozza
N. Cozza
D. Machado
D. Machado
J. Lepenant
J. Lepenant
I. Sissoko
I. Sissoko
M. Abline
🎯
M. Abline
M. Kaba
🎯
M. Kaba
R. Cabella
R. Cabella
I. Ganago
🎯
I. Ganago
J. De Lange
J. De Lange
T. Nnadi
T. Nnadi
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
F. Medina
F. Medina
Emerson
Emerson
A. Vermeeren
A. Vermeeren
P. Hojbjerg
P. Hojbjerg
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
Q. Timber
Q. Timber
H. J. Traore
H. J. Traore
P. Aubameyang
P. Aubameyang
Nantes 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
30
P. Carlgren
G
24
F. Guilbert
↓ 79'
D
6
C. Awaziem
D
3
N. Cozza
D
27
D. Machado
↓ 26'
D
8
J. Lepenant
M
28
I. Sissoko
↓ 79'
M
10
M. Abline
⚽ 58' 🎯 50' 🟨 17'
M
21
M. Kaba
🎯 58' ↓ 69'
M
20
R. Cabella
⚽ 54' ↓ 69'
M
37
I. Ganago
⚽ 50' 🎯 54'
F
Substitutes
40
L. Bonelli
G
19
Y. El Arabi
F
13
F. Coquelin
↑ 69'
M
31
Mostafa Mohamed
F
2
Ali Youssef
↑ 79'
D
26
U. Radakovic
↑ 79'
D
22
M. Acapandie
↑ 26'
D
66
L. Leroux
↑ 69'
M
11
B. Guirassy
F
Marseille 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
J. De Lange
G
6
T. Nnadi
D
5
L. Balerdi
↓ 88'
D
32
F. Medina
🟨 81'
D
33
Emerson
D
18
A. Vermeeren
↓ 65'
M
23
P. Hojbjerg
M
10
M. Greenwood
M
27
Q. Timber
↓ 46' 🟨 31'
M
20
H. J. Traore
↓ 90+4'
M
17
P. Aubameyang
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
92
T. Vermot
G
11
E. Nwaneri
M
72
H. Hamzaoui
↑ 88'
D
78
E. Lago
↑ 46' 🟨 49'
F
35
K. Bezahaf
D
71
N. Kamissoko
M
70
U. Lamare El Kadmiri
↑ 90+4'
F
9
A. Gouiri
↑ 65'
F
14
I. Paixao
↑ 46'
F
Last matches: Nantes
08.08.26
Lig
Nantes
RED Star FC 93
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Al Wakrah
5
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Le Mans
0
1
L
22.07.26
Fri
Nantes
La Roche VF
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Lorient
0
1
L
11.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Fleury 91
5
0
W
08.05.26
Lig
Nantes
Lens
0
1
L
26.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Rennes
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
11.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Auxerre
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Metz
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Strasbourg
2
3
L
07.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Angers
0
1
L
01.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Lille
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Le Havre
2
0
W
13.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Monaco
1
3
L
07.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Lyon
0
1
L
31.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Lorient
1
2
L
25.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Nice
1
4
L
Last matches: Marseille
09.08.26
Fri
Marseille
Athletic Club
3
1
W
30.07.26
Fri
Marseille
Nimes
2
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Marseille
Nice
0
3
L
17.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Nice
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Lorient
0
2
L
10.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lille
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lyon
3
2
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
03.02.26
Cou
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
H2H: Nantes vs Marseille
02.05.26
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
3
0
W
04.01.26
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
0
2
W
02.03.25
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
2
0
L
03.11.24
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
2
L
10.03.24
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
2
0
L
01.09.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
01.02.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
2
L
20.08.22
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
2
1
L
20.04.22
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
3
2
L
01.12.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
1
L
20.02.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
28.11.20
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
3
1
L
22.02.20
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
1
3
W
17.08.19
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
0
D
28.04.19
H2H
Marseille
Nantes
1
2
W
Last matches: Nantes
08.08.26
Lig
Nantes
RED Star FC 93
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Nantes
Al Wakrah
5
1
W
22.07.26
Fri
Nantes
La Roche VF
1
1
D
19.04.26
Lig
Nantes
Stade Brestois 29
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Strasbourg
2
3
L
07.03.26
Lig
Nantes
Angers
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Le Havre
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Nantes
Lyon
0
1
L
25.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Nice
1
4
L
18.01.26
Lig
Nantes
Paris FC
1
2
L
11.01.26
Cou
Nantes
Nice
1
1
D
06.12.25
Lig
Nantes
Lens
1
2
L
23.11.25
Lig
Nantes
Lorient
1
1
D
02.11.25
Lig
Nantes
Metz
0
2
L
29.10.25
Lig
Nantes
Monaco
3
5
L
19.10.25
Lig
Nantes
Lille
0
2
L
20.09.25
Lig
Nantes
Rennes
2
2
D
30.08.25
Lig
Nantes
Auxerre
1
0
W
17.08.25
Lig
Nantes
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
17.05.25
Lig
Nantes
Montpellier
3
0
W
H2H at home: Nantes
02.05.26
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
3
0
W
03.11.24
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
2
L
01.09.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
01.02.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
2
L
01.12.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
1
L
20.02.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
17.08.19
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
0
D
Last matches: Marseille
10.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
1
0
W
18.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Lorient
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
13.01.26
Cou
Marseille
Bayeux
9
0
W
21.12.25
Cou
Marseille
Bourg-en-bresse 01
6
0
W
09.12.25
UEF
Marseille
Union St. Gilloise
3
2
W
05.12.25
Lig
Marseille
Lille
0
1
L
21.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Nice
5
1
W
01.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
25.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Lens
1
2
L
22.10.25
UEF
Marseille
Sporting CP
1
2
L
04.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
0
W
26.09.25
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
1
W
16.09.25
UEF
Marseille
Real Madrid
1
2
L
H2H away: Marseille
02.05.26
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
3
0
L
03.11.24
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
2
W
01.09.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
01.02.23
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
2
W
01.12.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
1
W
20.02.21
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
1
1
D
17.08.19
H2H
Nantes
Marseille
0
0
D

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation