POLAND EKSTRAKLASA
05.09.2026 18:15
Motor Lublin Arena
Referee: Jaroslaw Przybyl, Poland
Motor Lublin
Match Timeline
Legia Warszawa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
13'
Bartosz Kapustka
Legia Warszawa
45'
R. Augustyniak
Legia Warszawa
🔄
61'
P. Meyer ↔ Y. Bourhane
Motor Lublin
65'
K. Czubak · Assist: K. Lukoszek
Motor Lublin
🔄
66'
W. Urbanski ↔ H. Arreiol
Legia Warszawa
🔄
66'
M. Sevcik ↔ R. Adamski
Legia Warszawa
68'
K. Czubak · Assist: M. Ndiaye
Motor Lublin
🔄
71'
Fabio Ronaldo ↔ M. Aiko
Motor Lublin
🔄
71'
M. Szczepaniak ↔ J. Zewlakow
Legia Warszawa
🔄
71'
J. Kuchta ↔ L. Zjawinski
Legia Warszawa
🟨
78'
Mateusz Łęgowski
Motor Lublin
🔄
80'
Z. Arsenic ↔ A. Reca
Legia Warszawa
🟨
90+14'
Rafał Adamski
Legia Warszawa
🟨
90+12'
Jakub Żewłakow
Legia Warszawa
🔄
90+4'
K. Lukoszek ↔ T. Santos
Motor Lublin
🔄
90+4'
B. Bereszynski ↔ M. Bartos
Motor Lublin
🔄
90+4'
M. Legowski ↔ Kikis
Motor Lublin
90'
J. Zewlakow
Legia Warszawa
90'
J. Zewlakow · Assist: R. Vinagre
Legia Warszawa

Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.4%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.79
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.4%
1.28
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.79
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.24
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
Motor Lublin Win 46.8%
Draw 3.6%
Legia Warszawa Win 49.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Motor Lublin1.73
Legia Warszawa1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Motor Lublin Motor Lublin
WWDLW
27 GF / 15 GA
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
WLDWL
36 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
1.89
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
9
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
9
4
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 12 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 19 matches
Motor Lublin Statistic Legia Warszawa
7 Wins 11
2 Draws 7
3 Losses 1
27 Goals For 36
15 Goals Against 18
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.89
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
9 BTTS Yes 12
11 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 6
1 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 5.17
14.83 Total Shots 17.17
4.17 Corners 5.17
45.5% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Legia Warszawa's more proactive style and Motor Lublin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Legia Warszawa. Legia Warszawa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 12 points while Motor Lublin sit 13 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Motor Lublin expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Legia Warszawa in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Legia Warszawa having the stronger overall control.

Motor Lublin Analysis

Motor Lublin sit 13 with 5 points after 5 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Karol Czubak (3 goals), with creative support from Mbaye Ndiaye (2 assists), Ivo Rodrigues (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Legia Warszawa Analysis

Legia Warszawa come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 12 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, while the 12:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Łukasz Zjawiński (3 goals), Bartosz Kapustka (2 goals), Rafał Adamski (2 goals), with creative support from Paweł Wszołek (4 assists), Rafał Augustyniak (1 assists), Rúben Vinagre (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Motor Lublin won 1 times, Legia Warszawa won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Motor Lublin's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.43 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
Predicted formations: Motor Lublin 4-1-4-1 / Legia Warszawa 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Motor Lublin wins 1, draws 2, Legia Warszawa wins 4

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
6 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
7 9 4 3 2 11:10 1 15
L W W D D
8 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
9 8 4 0 4 16:13 3 12
W L L W W
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D L L
12 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
13 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L L L L W
14 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
15 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 12:21 -9 3
L L W L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation