NORWAY 1. DIVISION
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 67.9%
Odds 1.53
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.28
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
67.9%
1.53
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.28
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.28
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
2.20
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Moss Win 32.1%
Draw 33.3%
Sogndal Win 34.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moss1.85
Sogndal2.03
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moss Moss
WWDLW
50 GF / 65 GA
Sogndal Sogndal
WLDWL
54 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.93
2.17
Average Goals Conceded
2.11
22
BTTS Yes
19
24
Over 2.5
19
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moss Moss 30 matches
Sogndal Sogndal 28 matches
Moss Statistic Sogndal
8 Wins 9
5 Draws 7
17 Losses 12
50 Goals For 54
65 Goals Against 59
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.93
2.17 Avg Goals Conceded 2.11
22 BTTS Yes 19
29 Over 1.5 27
24 Over 2.5 19
16 Over 3.5 16
3 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Moss expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Sogndal in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sogndal having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Sogndal.

Moss Analysis

Moss sit 13 with 18 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 29:41, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sogndal Analysis

With 21 points from 18 games and a place of 10, Sogndal still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 32:43, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Moss won 3 times, Sogndal won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:13 from Moss's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (67.9%)
Predicted formations: Moss 4-3-3 / Sogndal 4-4-2
H2H summary: Moss wins 3, draws 0, Sogndal wins 5
Last matches: Moss
15.08.26
1.
Moss
Bryne
1
2
L
10.08.26
1.
Moss
ODD Ballklubb
3
3
D
02.08.26
1.
Moss
hodd
1
2
L
26.07.26
1.
Moss
Raufoss
1
2
L
04.07.26
1.
Moss
Egersund
0
3
L
27.06.26
1.
Moss
Strommen
2
3
L
21.06.26
1.
Moss
Sandnes ULF
1
4
L
14.06.26
1.
Moss
Sogndal
4
2
W
30.05.26
1.
Moss
Stabaek
2
2
D
25.05.26
1.
Moss
Haugesund
1
3
L
20.05.26
1.
Moss
Stromsgodset
1
1
D
16.05.26
1.
Moss
ODD Ballklubb
3
2
W
10.05.26
1.
Moss
Bryne
2
3
L
01.05.26
1.
Moss
Ranheim
0
4
L
26.04.26
1.
Moss
Lyn
2
1
W
18.04.26
1.
Moss
Kongsvinger
1
2
L
12.04.26
1.
Moss
hodd
1
0
W
06.04.26
1.
Moss
Asane
3
2
W
29.03.26
Fri
Moss
Stabaek
0
2
L
21.03.26
Fri
Moss
Lyn
1
3
L
Last matches: Sogndal
16.08.26
1.
Sogndal
Sandnes ULF
2
0
W
09.08.26
1.
Sogndal
Bryne
0
2
L
02.08.26
1.
Sogndal
Lyn
2
3
L
26.07.26
1.
Sogndal
Ranheim
3
2
W
03.07.26
1.
Sogndal
Kongsvinger
1
5
L
27.06.26
1.
Sogndal
Egersund
4
2
W
21.06.26
1.
Sogndal
Raufoss
1
3
L
14.06.26
1.
Sogndal
Moss
2
4
L
31.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Strommen
3
2
W
25.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Sandnes ULF
0
2
L
20.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Stabaek
2
2
D
16.05.26
1.
Sogndal
hodd
2
2
D
10.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Haugesund
5
1
W
01.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Bryne
3
3
D
25.04.26
1.
Sogndal
Asane
2
0
W
18.04.26
1.
Sogndal
Stromsgodset
0
3
L
11.04.26
1.
Sogndal
Lyn
0
3
L
06.04.26
1.
Sogndal
ODD Ballklubb
0
4
L
29.03.26
Fri
Sogndal
Asane
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Sogndal
Raufoss
1
1
D
H2H: Moss vs Sogndal
14.06.26
H2H
Sogndal
Moss
2
4
W
23.08.25
H2H
Sogndal
Moss
3
1
L
30.07.25
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
1
W
19.08.24
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
0
W
20.04.24
H2H
Sogndal
Moss
1
0
L
07.10.23
H2H
Sogndal
Moss
2
1
L
07.06.23
H2H
Sogndal
Moss
2
0
L
23.04.23
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
1
2
L
Last matches: Moss
10.08.26
1.
Moss
ODD Ballklubb
3
3
D
26.07.26
1.
Moss
Raufoss
1
2
L
21.06.26
1.
Moss
Sandnes ULF
1
4
L
30.05.26
1.
Moss
Stabaek
2
2
D
20.05.26
1.
Moss
Stromsgodset
1
1
D
10.05.26
1.
Moss
Bryne
2
3
L
26.04.26
1.
Moss
Lyn
2
1
W
12.04.26
1.
Moss
hodd
1
0
W
17.02.26
Fri
Moss
Arendal
3
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Moss
Follo
6
1
W
31.01.26
Fri
Moss
Strommen
2
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Moss
Kjelsås
0
3
L
H2H at home: Moss
30.07.25
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
1
W
19.08.24
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
0
W
23.04.23
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
1
2
L
Last matches: Sogndal
02.08.26
1.
Sogndal
Lyn
2
3
L
03.07.26
1.
Sogndal
Kongsvinger
1
5
L
21.06.26
1.
Sogndal
Raufoss
1
3
L
31.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Strommen
3
2
W
25.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Sandnes ULF
0
2
L
16.05.26
1.
Sogndal
hodd
2
2
D
01.05.26
1.
Sogndal
Bryne
3
3
D
18.04.26
1.
Sogndal
Stromsgodset
0
3
L
06.04.26
1.
Sogndal
ODD Ballklubb
0
4
L
06.03.26
Fri
Sogndal
Stabaek
0
1
L
28.02.26
Fri
Sogndal
hodd
5
1
W
H2H away: Sogndal
30.07.25
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
1
L
19.08.24
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
3
0
L
23.04.23
H2H
Moss
Sogndal
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.45
Draw 4.13
Home 2.43
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.84
Draw 2.79
Home 2.82
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 1.28
Over 3.25 1.55
Over 3.5 1.71
Over 3.75 1.87
Over 4.0 2.09
Over 4.25 2.33
Over 4.5 2.56
Over 5.5 4.27
Under 2.5 3.55
Under 3.25 2.43
Under 3.5 2.13
Under 3.75 1.93
Under 4.0 1.73
Under 4.25 1.59
Under 4.5 1.49
Under 5.5 1.21
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.45
Draw 3.80
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 2.75
Home 2.75
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 3.00
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.07
Over 2.5 1.30
Over 3.5 1.73
Over 4.5 2.62
Over 5.5 4.33
Over 6.5 8.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 29.00
Over 9.5 51.00
Under 0.5 29.00
Under 1.5 9.00
Under 2.5 3.50
Under 3.5 2.00
Under 4.5 1.44
Under 5.5 1.20
Under 6.5 1.08
Under 7.5 1.02
Under 8.5 1.01
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.41
Draw 4.10
Home 2.38
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.78
Draw 2.61
Home 2.71
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.57
Draw 3.04
Home 2.54
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.5 1.03
Over 1.75 1.04
Over 2.0 1.05
Over 2.25 1.14
Over 2.5 1.23
Over 2.75 1.29
Over 3.0 1.35
Over 3.25 1.54
Over 3.5 1.70
Over 3.75 1.86
Over 4.0 2.03
Over 4.25 2.22
Over 4.5 2.46
Over 4.75 2.83
Over 5.0 3.50
Over 5.25 3.82
Over 5.5 4.10
Over 6.0 6.55
Over 6.5 8.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Over 8.5 29.00
Over 9.5 50.00
Under 0.5 20.00
Under 1.0 14.50
Under 1.5 7.60
Under 1.75 7.10
Under 2.0 6.70
Under 2.25 4.44
Under 2.5 3.42
Under 2.75 3.14
Under 3.0 2.82
Under 3.25 2.39
Under 3.5 2.09
Under 3.75 1.89
Under 4.0 1.66
Under 4.25 1.52
Under 4.5 1.43
Under 4.75 1.33
Under 5.0 1.22
Under 5.25 1.19
Under 5.5 1.16
Under 6.0 1.05
Under 6.5 1.08
Under 7.5 1.02
Under 8.5 1.01
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.50
Draw 3.80
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.70
Home 2.63
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 3.10
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.07
Over 2.5 1.29
Over 3.0 1.42
Over 3.25 1.58
Over 3.5 1.76
Over 3.75 1.94
Over 4.0 2.23
Over 4.5 2.70
Over 5.5 4.40
Under 1.5 6.40
Under 2.5 3.15
Under 3.0 2.60
Under 3.25 2.16
Under 3.5 1.91
Under 3.75 1.74
Under 4.0 1.55
Under 4.5 1.38
Under 5.5 1.16

Standings

1. Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 12 3 3 48:19 29 39
W W W W W
2 18 12 3 3 48:28 20 39
W W L W W
3 18 12 1 5 57:36 21 37
L W W L W
4 18 10 5 3 47:26 21 35
W L W D L
5 18 9 3 6 32:32 0 30
W W W L W
6 18 8 5 5 35:28 7 29
L D W D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
W W W L W
8 18 8 2 8 31:32 -1 26
L W W D W
9 18 7 2 9 44:45 -1 23
L W L L L
10 18 6 3 9 32:43 -11 21
W L L W L
11 18 6 2 10 29:38 -9 20
W L W D W
12 19 6 2 11 26:35 -9 20
L L L L L
13
Moss Home
18 5 3 10 29:41 -12 18
L D L L L
14 18 5 2 11 27:40 -13 17
W L L D L
15 18 5 1 12 22:43 -21 16
L L L W W
16 18 4 3 11 25:45 -20 15
L L W D L
Promotion
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Relegation