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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
30.08.2026 18:45
Stade Louis II
Referee: Willy Delajod, France
Monaco
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
P. Brunner · Assist: A. Golovin
Monaco
🟨
42'
Denis Zakaria
Monaco
🟨
43'
Lamine Camara
Monaco
🔄
46'
H. Abdelli ↔ T. Nnadi
Marseille
🔄
46'
Q. Timber ↔ K. Abdallah
Marseille
⚽
53'
P. Brunner · Assist: E. Dier
Monaco
🔄
58'
G. Kondogbia ↔ N. Aguerd
Marseille
🔄
73'
↔ N. Maupay
Marseille
🔄
81'
M. Coulibaly ↔ A. Soubeir
Monaco
🔄
81'
A. Golovin ↔ M. Abline
Monaco
🔄
81'
P. Brunner ↔ M. Biereth
Monaco
🔄
85'
S. Idumbo ↔ M. Detourbet
Monaco
🔄
85'
A. Gomes ↔ F. Moumbagna
Marseille
🟨
88'
Nazinho
Monaco
🟨
90+2'
Lukáš Hrádecký
Monaco

Monaco vs Marseille Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
69.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Monaco Win 51.2%
Draw 18.4%
Marseille Win 30.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Monaco1.83
Marseille1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Monaco Monaco
WWDLW
19 GF / 13 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
10 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
2
1.44
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
5
BTTS Yes
3
5
Over 2.5
5
6.33
Shots on Goal
8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Monaco Monaco 9 matches
Marseille Marseille 5 matches
Monaco Statistic Marseille
6 Wins 3
1 Draws 0
2 Losses 2
19 Goals For 10
13 Goals Against 7
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.44 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
5 BTTS Yes 3
7 Over 1.5 5
5 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 1
6.33 Shots On Goal 8
14.67 Total Shots 14
4.33 Corners 3
55.3% Ball Possession 67%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Monaco won 7 times, Marseille won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:18 from Monaco's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.6%)
Predicted formations: Monaco 4-2-3-1 / Marseille 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Monaco 4, Marseille 2
H2H summary: Monaco wins 7, draws 2, Marseille wins 5

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10 6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
Champions League league stage
Qualifying
Europa League league stage
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation