NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Aker Stadion
Referee: C. Moen
Molde
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
F. Gulbrandsen · Assist: E. Hestad
Molde
🟨
38'
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Molde
45'
L. Haren · Assist: M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
46'
E. Sorensen ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🟨
48'
Hakon Sjatil
Valerenga
51'
E. Breivik · Assist: S. Kabini
Molde
55'
F. Gulbrandsen · Assist: S. Granaas
Molde
57'
E. Hestad
Molde
🔄
63'
F. Gulbrandsen ↔ J. Abdullai
Molde
🔄
63'
M. Daehli ↔ J. Christensen
Molde
🔄
69'
M. Grundetjern ↔ G. Rajkovic
Valerenga
🔄
69'
H. Sjatil ↔ O. T. Holm
Valerenga
🔄
80'
E. Hestad ↔ V. Bender
Molde
86'
S. Granaas · Assist: J. Abdullai
Molde
🔄
88'
L. Haren ↔ V. Hedenstad
Valerenga
🔄
89'
S. Granaas ↔ T. Kone-Doherty
Molde
🔄
89'
E. Breivik ↔ O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Molde
🔄
89'
I. Nasberg ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Molde Win 61.2%
Draw 9.9%
Valerenga Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Molde1.4
Valerenga1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Molde Molde
WWDLW
17 GF / 13 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
23 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
7
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
4.4
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Molde Molde 11 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 12 matches
Molde Statistic Valerenga
4 Wins 7
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
17 Goals For 23
13 Goals Against 14
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 2
4.4 Shots On Goal 4.2
12.4 Total Shots 14.6
5.6 Corners 7.6
61.4% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Valerenga's more proactive style and Molde's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Molde appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Valerenga. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Valerenga. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Molde Analysis

Placed 4 with 7 points from 5 outings, Molde continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 3:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Breivik (5 goals), Eirik Hestad (1 goals), J. Abdullai (1 goals), with creative support from C. Zady (1 assists), H. Stenevik (1 assists), M. Kikkenborg (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Daga, F. Dahl, O. Spiten-Nysaeter unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga are currently 6 in the standings with 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 3:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Lange (2 goals), I. Nasberg (1 goals), M. Grundetjern (1 goals), with creative support from K. Finnsson (1 assists), M. Westergaard (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Ofkir unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Molde won 9 times, Valerenga won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:15 from Molde's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Molde 4-4-2 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Molde 6, Valerenga 1
H2H summary: Molde wins 9, draws 2, Valerenga wins 2
Stats
Molde Molde
Valerenga Valerenga
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 5
6 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Goal 7
9 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 2
15 Shots insidebox 7
3 Shots outsidebox 3
6 Goalkeeper Saves 2
559 Total passes 411
494 Passes accurate 331
3.59 expected_goals 1.38
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Molde
Formation
Valerenga
A. Posiadala
A. Posiadala
H. Stenevik
H. Stenevik
S. Hansen
S. Hansen
B. Risa
B. Risa
S. Kabini
🎯
S. Kabini
V. Hoff
V. Hoff
M. Daehli
M. Daehli
E. Hestad
🎯
E. Hestad
E. Breivik
E. Breivik
S. Granaas
🎯
S. Granaas
F. Gulbrandsen
⚽ 2
F. Gulbrandsen
O. Hedvall
O. Hedvall
H. Sjatil
H. Sjatil
A. Olsen
A. Olsen
I. Nasberg
I. Nasberg
K. Finnsson
K. Finnsson
L. Haren
L. Haren
M. Westergaard
M. Westergaard
C. Lange
C. Lange
E. Sorensen
E. Sorensen
H. Bjordal
H. Bjordal
M. Grundetjern
🎯
M. Grundetjern
Molde 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
A. Posiadala
G
18
H. Stenevik
D
4
S. Hansen
D
33
B. Risa
D
26
S. Kabini
🎯 51'
D
15
V. Hoff
M
17
M. Daehli
↓ 63'
M
5
E. Hestad
⚽ 57' 🎯 21' ↓ 80'
M
10
E. Breivik
⚽ 51' ↓ 89'
M
23
S. Granaas
⚽ 86' 🎯 55' ↓ 89'
M
8
F. Gulbrandsen
⚽ 21' ⚽ 55' ↓ 63' 🟨 38'
F
Substitutes
32
M. Myklebust
G
25
M. Linnes
D
19
E. Haugan
D
9
J. Abdullai
🎯 86' ↑ 63'
F
31
B. Isufi
M
28
V. Bender
↑ 80'
M
14
J. Christensen
↑ 63'
M
24
T. Kone-Doherty
↑ 89'
F
21
O. Spiten-Nysaeter
↑ 89'
F
Valerenga 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
O. Hedvall
G
3
H. Sjatil
↓ 69' 🟨 48'
D
4
A. Olsen
D
37
I. Nasberg
↓ 89'
D
2
K. Finnsson
D
77
L. Haren
⚽ 45' ↓ 88'
M
28
M. Westergaard
M
10
C. Lange
M
11
E. Sorensen
↓ 46'
M
8
H. Bjordal
F
17
M. Grundetjern
🎯 45' ↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
21
M. Sjoeng
G
6
V. Hedenstad
↑ 88'
D
9
G. Rajkovic
↑ 69'
F
24
P. Strand
↑ 46'
M
55
S. Jarl
D
5
K. Tshiembe
↑ 89'
D
15
O. T. Holm
↑ 69'
M
Last matches: Molde
09.08.26
Eli
Molde
Kristiansund BK
1
2
L
02.08.26
Eli
Molde
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
3
D
26.07.26
Eli
Molde
KFUM Oslo
4
2
W
18.07.26
Eli
Molde
Brann
1
2
L
11.07.26
Eli
Molde
Aalesund
2
2
D
05.07.26
Fri
Molde
Rosenborg
1
2
L
28.06.26
Fri
Molde
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
21.06.26
Fri
Molde
KFUM Oslo
5
1
W
30.05.26
Eli
Molde
Sandefjord
2
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Molde
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Molde
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
10.05.26
Eli
Molde
Tromso
0
2
L
04.05.26
Eli
Molde
Bodo/Glimt
1
0
W
19.04.26
Eli
Molde
Start
1
1
D
12.04.26
Eli
Molde
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
06.04.26
Eli
Molde
Lillestrom
0
1
L
21.03.26
Eli
Molde
Viking
1
4
L
14.03.26
Eli
Molde
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Molde
Aalesund
4
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
Molde
Viking
2
2
D
Last matches: Valerenga
08.08.26
Eli
Valerenga
Bodo/Glimt
1
2
L
31.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
3
L
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
16.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Aalesund
6
1
W
11.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Tromso
0
4
L
04.07.26
Fri
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
3
1
W
27.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
Gais
1
2
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
29.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Kristiansund BK
3
1
W
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
2
W
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
03.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
KFUM Oslo
2
2
D
19.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Lillestrom
0
2
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
06.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Viking
0
1
L
27.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
3
3
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
15.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Sandefjord
1
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Valerenga
Stromsgodset
4
3
W
H2H: Molde vs Valerenga
26.04.26
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
5
1
W
28.09.25
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
22.06.25
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
2
3
W
19.08.23
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
15.07.23
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
0
4
W
13.11.22
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
1
2
W
02.04.22
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
1
0
W
28.11.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
19.09.21
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
1
1
D
27.05.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
2
3
L
05.04.21
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
0
0
D
19.09.20
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
2
1
L
29.07.20
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
24.11.19
H2H
Valerenga
Molde
2
4
W
10.04.19
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
Last matches: Molde
02.08.26
Eli
Molde
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
3
D
18.07.26
Eli
Molde
Brann
1
2
L
28.06.26
Fri
Molde
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
21.06.26
Fri
Molde
KFUM Oslo
5
1
W
30.05.26
Eli
Molde
Sandefjord
2
1
W
16.05.26
Eli
Molde
Kristiansund BK
1
0
W
12.04.26
Eli
Molde
Ham-Kam
4
1
W
06.04.26
Eli
Molde
Lillestrom
0
1
L
14.03.26
Eli
Molde
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Molde
Aalesund
4
1
W
17.02.26
Fri
Molde
Viking
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Molde
Brattvåg
2
1
W
12.02.26
Fri
Molde
FC Kharkiv
0
1
L
06.02.26
Fri
Molde
Kristiansund BK
0
0
D
02.02.26
Fri
Molde
Træff
1
1
D
H2H at home: Molde
26.04.26
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
5
1
W
28.09.25
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
19.08.23
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
02.04.22
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
1
0
W
28.11.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
27.05.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
2
3
L
29.07.20
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
10.04.19
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
W
Last matches: Valerenga
26.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Brann
3
2
W
11.07.26
Eli
Valerenga
Tromso
0
4
L
18.06.26
Fri
Valerenga
IFK Goteborg
1
1
D
25.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Start
0
2
L
08.05.26
Eli
Valerenga
Ham-Kam
0
1
L
12.04.26
Eli
Valerenga
Fredrikstad
1
1
D
22.03.26
Eli
Valerenga
Rosenborg
2
0
W
27.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Rosenborg
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Valerenga
Djurgardens IF
1
2
L
H2H away: Valerenga
26.04.26
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
5
1
L
28.09.25
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
L
19.08.23
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
02.04.22
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
1
0
L
28.11.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
0
0
D
27.05.21
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
2
3
W
29.07.20
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
L
10.04.19
H2H
Molde
Valerenga
4
1
L

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 2 2 43:12 31 41
W W W W W
2 16 13 1 2 39:15 24 40
W W D W W
3 16 10 4 2 32:17 15 34
W W W D D
4 16 8 1 7 22:20 2 25
L L L W W
5
Molde Home
16 7 3 6 29:24 5 24
L D W L D
6 16 7 1 8 33:27 6 22
W L W W L
7 16 6 4 6 19:21 -2 22
L D W D W
8 16 6 4 6 24:27 -3 22
D W L L L
9 16 6 3 7 23:21 2 21
W L W W W
10 16 6 2 8 23:29 -6 20
L L W W L
11 16 6 2 8 17:27 -10 20
W W L L L
12 16 5 3 8 18:26 -8 18
W W L L L
13 16 4 3 9 13:22 -9 15
L L L L D
14 16 4 3 9 15:26 -11 15
W L L D L
15 16 2 8 6 22:36 -14 14
D L D L D
16 17 2 4 11 16:38 -22 10
L L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Molde 6 missing
-
D. Daga
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
F. Dahl
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
C. Oyvann
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
I. Amundsen
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
M. Kikkenborg
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
Valerenga 1 missing
-
M. Ofkir
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT