NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Aker Stadion
Referee: S. Sletner
Molde
Match Timeline
Sarpsborg 08 FF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
S. Granaas
Molde
33'
D. Karlsbakk · Assist: C. Niyukuri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
40'
E. Hestad
Molde
51'
A. Nibe
Sarpsborg 08 FF
56'
E. Hestad · Assist: E. Breivik
Molde
60'
D. Daga · Assist: E. Breivik
Molde
🔄
64'
N. Williams ↔ V. E. Halvorsen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
64'
A. Nibe ↔ O. Skarsem
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
64'
T. Kone-Doherty ↔ J. Abdullai
Molde
🔄
64'
C. Zady ↔ O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Molde
🔄
72'
C. Niyukuri ↔ E. Wichne
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
74'
M. Linnes ↔ M. Lovik
Molde
🔄
74'
D. Daga ↔ M. Enggaard
Molde
🟨
74'
S. Christiansen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
81'
S. Sorli ↔ M. Opoku
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
81'
A. Sher ↔ Camil Mmaee
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
87'
E. Hestad ↔ S. Diop
Molde
89'
A. Posiadala
Sarpsborg 08 FF

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Molde Win 64%
Draw 12.7%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Molde1.58
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Molde Molde
WWDLW
41 GF / 32 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
37 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.78
Average Goals Scored
1.48
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
16
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
14
4.85
Shots on Goal
4.38

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Molde Molde 23 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 25 matches
Molde Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
10 Wins 13
5 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
41 Goals For 37
32 Goals Against 32
1.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.48
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
16 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 19
14 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 8
4 Failed To Score 5
4.85 Shots On Goal 4.38
13.23 Total Shots 12.08
5.23 Corners 4.69
59.2% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Molde's more proactive style and Sarpsborg 08 FF's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Molde expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sarpsborg 08 FF. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Molde Analysis

Placed 5 with 20 points from 13 outings, Molde continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 21:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Emil Breivik (4 goals), Eirik Hestad (4 goals), Fredrik Gulbrandsen (4 goals), with creative support from Emil Breivik (2 assists), Eirik Hestad (2 assists), Sondre Milian Granaas (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF sit 7 with 18 points after 13 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 14:16 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Daniel Karlsbakk (3 goals), Victor Emanuel Halvorsen (2 goals), Claus Niyukuri (1 goals), with creative support from Claus Niyukuri (3 assists), Sondre Sörli (2 assists), Sander Christiansen (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Molde won 7 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:24 from Molde's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.3%)
Predicted formations: Molde 4-2-3-1 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-4-2
Missing players: Molde 5, Sarpsborg 08 FF 4
H2H summary: Molde wins 7, draws 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 14 2 2 47:14 33 44
W W W W W
2 18 14 1 3 42:18 24 43
W L W W D
3 18 10 5 3 34:20 14 35
D L W W W
4
Molde Home
18 9 3 6 36:29 7 30
W W L D W
5 18 8 2 8 36:27 9 26
D W W L W
6 18 8 2 8 24:25 -1 26
L D L L L
7 18 8 2 8 22:28 -6 26
W W W W L
8 18 7 3 8 27:26 1 24
L W W L W
9 18 6 5 7 20:23 -3 23
D L L D W
10 18 6 5 7 26:32 -6 23
D L D W L
11 18 6 3 9 31:38 -7 21
L D L L W
12 18 5 4 9 15:23 -8 19
D W L L L
13 18 5 4 9 20:31 -11 19
L D W W L
14 18 4 4 10 17:29 -12 16
D L W L L
15 18 2 9 7 28:43 -15 15
L D D L D
16 18 3 4 11 20:39 -19 13
W L L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen