🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
20.08.2026 00:30
Allianz Field
Referee: Joshua Encarnacion, USA
Minnesota United FC
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Junior Alonso
Atlanta United FC
🟨
29'
Michael Boxall
Minnesota United FC
🟨
32'
Joaquín Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
37'
T. Jacob
Atlanta United FC
🟨
46'
Adrian Gill
Atlanta United FC
🟨
56'
Cooper Sanchez
Atlanta United FC
58'
A. Markanich
Minnesota United FC
🔄
64'
C. Sanchez ↔ S. Alzate
Atlanta United FC
🔄
64'
F. Picault ↔ L. Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🔄
68'
M. Caldeira ↔ A. Jackson
Minnesota United FC
🔄
68'
B. Hlongwane ↔ M. Dieng
Minnesota United FC
🟨
75'
Tomás Chancalay
Minnesota United FC
78'
T. Muyumba · Assist: A. Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
🔄
79'
A. Miranchuk ↔ M. Edwards
Atlanta United FC
🔄
80'
T. Chancalay ↔ K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
80'
W. Trapp ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
🔄
84'
T. Muyumba ↔ P. Diaz
Atlanta United FC
🔄
84'
A. Gill ↔ E. Mihaj
Atlanta United FC
🟨
87'
Owen Gene
Minnesota United FC

Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 69.3%
Draw 16.9%
Atlanta United FC Win 13.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.33
Atlanta United FC1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
25 GF / 28 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
29 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 22 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 23 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic Atlanta United FC
7 Wins 6
8 Draws 5
7 Losses 12
25 Goals For 29
28 Goals Against 37
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
12 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 8
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.16
13.37 Total Shots 12.68
5.68 Corners 4.68
46.2% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atlanta United FC. Minnesota United FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 24 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 15 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Atlanta United FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Atlanta United FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Minnesota United FC have collected 24 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 20:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kelvin Yeboah (6 goals), Anthony Markanich (4 goals), Joaquín Pereyra (1 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (4 assists), Tomás Chancalay (3 assists), James Rodríguez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

With 12 points from 18 games and a place of 15, Atlanta United FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 19:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (1 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 2 times, Atlanta United FC won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:17 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-3 / Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 4, Atlanta United FC 3
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 2, draws 0, Atlanta United FC wins 5

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 26 8 7 11 44:44 0 31
D L L L W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)