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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
24.10.2026 06:00
Ajinomoto Stadium

Tokyo Verdy vs Avispa Fukuoka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tokyo Verdy Win 12.1%
Draw 12.1%
Avispa Fukuoka Win 75.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tokyo Verdy0.88
Avispa Fukuoka1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WWDLW
4 GF / 18 GA
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka
WLDWL
11 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
0.4
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
6
2.1
Shots on Goal
4.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 10 matches
Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 10 matches
Tokyo Verdy Statistic Avispa Fukuoka
0 Wins 2
4 Draws 1
6 Losses 7
4 Goals For 11
18 Goals Against 16
0.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
4 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 4
2.1 Shots On Goal 4.5
8.6 Total Shots 12.4
3.3 Corners 4.5
40.2% Ball Possession 41.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Avispa Fukuoka. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 4 points from 9 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 4:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Mizoguchi (1 goals), N. Hayashi (1 goals), Y. Arai (1 goals), with creative support from S. Mizoguchi (1 assists), I. Someno (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Avispa Fukuoka Analysis

Avispa Fukuoka sit 17 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 11:13, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Morooka (3 goals), Y. Tsujioka (1 goals), Y. Hashimoto (1 goals), with creative support from D. Fukazawa (2 assists), S. Morooka (1 assists), K. Shiihashi (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 3 times, Avispa Fukuoka won 4 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:13 from Tokyo Verdy's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (87.9%)
Predicted formations: Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1 / Avispa Fukuoka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Tokyo Verdy wins 3, draws 8, Avispa Fukuoka wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League