COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
20.09.2026 01:15

Millonarios vs Chico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.1%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Millonarios Win 77.1%
Draw 14.7%
Chico Win 8.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Millonarios1.47
Chico0.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Millonarios Millonarios
WWDLW
43 GF / 35 GA
Chico Chico
WLDWL
21 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
17
BTTS Yes
6
14
Over 2.5
12
5.79
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Millonarios Millonarios 33 matches
Chico Chico 26 matches
Millonarios Statistic Chico
11 Wins 7
10 Draws 4
12 Losses 15
43 Goals For 21
35 Goals Against 45
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
17 BTTS Yes 6
23 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 6
11 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 15
5.79 Shots On Goal 3
15.52 Total Shots 9.5
5.86 Corners 3.73
48.8% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Millonarios's more proactive style and Chico's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Chico. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Millonarios arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 26 points compared to Chico in 18 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Millonarios expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Chico in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chico having the stronger overall control.

Millonarios Analysis

Millonarios are currently 10 in the standings with 26 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 31:23 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by A. Estupiñán (13 goals), R. Contreras (9 goals), L. Castro (8 goals), with creative support from Sebastián Valencia Isaza (4 assists), A. Estupiñán (3 assists), F. Chaverra (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Chico Analysis

Chico approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 17 points from 19 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 15:32, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jairo Molina (4 goals), S. Mera (3 goals), Arlen Banguero (2 goals), with creative support from Delio Ramírez (2 assists), Y. Cabrera (2 assists), E. Sarria (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Millonarios won 8 times, Chico won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:16 from Millonarios's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.8%)
Predicted formations: Millonarios 5-3-2 / Chico 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Millonarios wins 8, draws 5, Chico wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18
Chico Away
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification