Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
52.2%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
78.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
69.6%
|
- |
Mazatlán
Toluca
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Mazatlán
32 matches
Toluca
38 matches
| Mazatlán | Statistic | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 21 |
| 11 | Draws | 11 |
| 16 | Losses | 6 |
| 37 | Goals For | 71 |
| 58 | Goals Against | 35 |
| 1.16 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.87 |
| 1.81 | Avg Goals Conceded | 0.92 |
| 24 | BTTS Yes | 21 |
| 26 | Over 1.5 | 27 |
| 19 | Over 2.5 | 19 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 14 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 13 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.53 | Shots On Goal | 5.68 |
| 9.91 | Total Shots | 17.63 |
| 3.88 | Corners | 5.58 |
| 42% | Ball Possession | 56.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Toluca's more proactive style and Mazatlán's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Toluca. Toluca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 27 points while Mazatlán sit 17 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Mazatlán have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mazatlán expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Toluca in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toluca having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Mazatlán sit 17 with 12 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats with a 16:28 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Almada (6 goals), Josué Ovalle (5 goals), Fábio Gomes (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Laínez (3 assists), F. Almada (2 assists), Nicolás Benedetti (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.
Toluca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 27 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 20:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Paulinho (21 goals), Helinho (9 goals), R. Morales (8 goals), with creative support from A. Vega (9 assists), N. Castro (8 assists), Helinho (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Mazatlán won 4 times, Toluca won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:31 from Mazatlán's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.77 goals per game.
Mazatlán
6
8
7
1
3
4
Lineups
Mazatlán
Tigres UANL
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
Mazatlán
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Mazatlán
Necaxa
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
Mazatlán
Club America
Mazatlán
Leon
Mazatlán
Atletico San Luis
Mazatlán
CF Pachuca
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
Mazatlán
Atlas
Mazatlán
Monterrey
Mazatlán
Puebla
Mazatlán
FC Juarez
Mazatlán
Necaxa
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
Mazatlán
Club America
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
Toluca
Atlante FC
Toluca
Cancún
Toluca
Tigres UANL
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
Toluca
Leon
Toluca
Club America
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
Club Queretaro
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Toluca
San Diego
Toluca
Atlas
Toluca
San Diego
Toluca
FC Juarez
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
Mazatlán
Leon
Mazatlán
CF Pachuca
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
Mazatlán
Monterrey
Mazatlán
FC Juarez
Mazatlán
Necaxa
Mazatlán
Club America
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
Mazatlán
Atletico San Luis
Mazatlán
Atlas
Mazatlán
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Mazatlán
Tigres UANL
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
Mazatlán
Puebla
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
Mazatlán
Atlas
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
Toluca
Atlante FC
Toluca
Cancún
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
Toluca
Club America
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
Toluca
Club Queretaro
Toluca
CF Pachuca
Toluca
San Diego
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Toluca
Necaxa
Toluca
Puebla
Toluca
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Monterrey
Toluca
Tigres UANL
Toluca
Monterrey
Toluca
FC Juarez
Toluca
Atlas
Toluca
Club Tijuana
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 34:17 | 17 | 36 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 2 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33:17 | 16 | 36 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 3 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 31:18 | 13 | 33 |
W
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 4 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 25:19 | 6 | 31 |
L
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 5 |
Toluca
Away
|
17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 28:16 | 12 | 30 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
| 6 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 16:18 | -2 | 26 |
L
L
W
D
W
|
|
| 7 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 28:18 | 10 | 25 |
L
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:17 | 3 | 25 |
D
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 19:17 | 2 | 23 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 9 | 22:32 | -10 | 22 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 11 | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 17:21 | -4 | 20 |
W
D
D
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 26:32 | -6 | 19 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 22:24 | -2 | 18 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 24:27 | -3 | 18 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 15 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 19:25 | -6 | 18 |
L
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 16 |
Mazatlán
Home
|
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 22:37 | -15 | 15 |
L
W
D
L
L
|
| 17 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 13:26 | -13 | 13 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 17 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 20:38 | -18 | 12 |
W
L
L
L
D
|