MEXICO LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio El Encanto
Referee: M. Ortiz
Mazatlán
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
12'
Alexis Vega
Toluca
🟨
15'
Lucas Merolla
Mazatlán
🟨
23'
Jair Díaz
Mazatlán
🟨
26'
Everardo López
Toluca
45'
E. del Villar · Assist: F. Arce
Toluca
🔄
46'
J. Diaz ↔ J. Angulo
Toluca
49'
B. Rubio · Assist: F. Almada
Mazatlán
54'
A. Briseno · Assist: A. Vega
Toluca
🔄
56'
F. Rossi ↔ Bruno Mendez
Toluca
VAR
59'
Marcel Ruíz
Toluca
🟥
60'
Marcel Ruíz
Toluca
VAR
64'
Facundo Almada
Mazatlán
69'
Y. Barcenas
Mazatlán
🔄
72'
S. Godinez ↔ Fabio Gomes
Mazatlán
🔄
72'
J. Diaz ↔ G. Lopez
Mazatlán
🔄
72'
M. Zaleta ↔ M. Lainez
Mazatlán
75'
G. Lopez · Assist: Dudu
Mazatlán
🔄
81'
M. Isais ↔ N. Castro
Toluca
🔄
81'
A. Vega ↔ O. Virgen
Toluca
🔄
86'
J. Ovalle ↔ D. Hernandez
Mazatlán
🔄
87'
B. Rubio ↔ B. Arce
Mazatlán
87'
N. Castro · Assist: J. Angulo
Toluca
88'
D. Hernandez · Assist: Fabio Gomes
Mazatlán
🟨
90+5'
Gabriel Lopez
Mazatlán

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.2%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Mazatlán Win 43.5%
Draw 4.4%
Toluca Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mazatlán1.06
Toluca1.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mazatlán Mazatlán
WWDLW
37 GF / 58 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
71 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.87
1.81
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
24
BTTS Yes
21
19
Over 2.5
19
3.53
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mazatlán Mazatlán 32 matches
Toluca Toluca 38 matches
Mazatlán Statistic Toluca
5 Wins 21
11 Draws 11
16 Losses 6
37 Goals For 71
58 Goals Against 35
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.87
1.81 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
24 BTTS Yes 21
26 Over 1.5 27
19 Over 2.5 19
12 Over 3.5 14
2 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 9
3.53 Shots On Goal 5.68
9.91 Total Shots 17.63
3.88 Corners 5.58
42% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Toluca's more proactive style and Mazatlán's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Toluca. Toluca carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 27 points while Mazatlán sit 17 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Mazatlán have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mazatlán expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Toluca in 5-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toluca having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mazatlán Analysis

Mazatlán sit 17 with 12 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats with a 16:28 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Almada (6 goals), Josué Ovalle (5 goals), Fábio Gomes (4 goals), with creative support from Mauro Laínez (3 assists), F. Almada (2 assists), Nicolás Benedetti (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Toluca Analysis

Toluca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 27 points from 15 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 20:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Paulinho (21 goals), Helinho (9 goals), R. Morales (8 goals), with creative support from A. Vega (9 assists), N. Castro (8 assists), Helinho (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Mazatlán won 4 times, Toluca won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:31 from Mazatlán's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.77 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: Mazatlán 5-3-2 / Toluca 5-4-1
H2H summary: Mazatlán wins 4, draws 2, Toluca wins 7
Stats
Mazatlán Mazatlán
Toluca Toluca
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
4
3 Corner Kicks 8
12 Fouls 18
3 Offsides 0
41% Ball Possession 59%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Goal 8
7 Shots off Goal 1
3 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 6
9 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
328 Total passes 465
271 Passes accurate 393
1.97 expected_goals 1.07
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Mazatlán
Formation
Toluca
R. Rodriguez
R. Rodriguez
S. Santos
S. Santos
F. Almada
🎯
F. Almada
L. Merolla
L. Merolla
J. Diaz
J. Diaz
M. Zaleta
M. Zaleta
Dudu
🎯
Dudu
Y. Barcenas
Y. Barcenas
S. Godinez
S. Godinez
J. Ovalle
J. Ovalle
B. Rubio
B. Rubio
H. Gonzalez
H. Gonzalez
D. Barbosa
D. Barbosa
A. Briseno
A. Briseno
E. del Villar
E. del Villar
M. Isais
M. Isais
F. Arce
🎯
F. Arce
M. Ruiz
M. Ruiz
P. Perez
P. Perez
J. Diaz
J. Diaz
A. Vega
🎯
A. Vega
F. Rossi
F. Rossi
Mazatlán 5-4-1
Starting XI
33
R. Rodriguez
G
21
S. Santos
D
5
F. Almada
🎯 49'
D
19
L. Merolla
🟨 15'
D
4
J. Diaz
↓ 72' 🟨 23'
D
14
M. Zaleta
↓ 72'
D
7
Dudu
🎯 75'
M
11
Y. Barcenas
⚽ 69'
M
25
S. Godinez
↓ 72'
17
J. Ovalle
↓ 86'
M
15
B. Rubio
⚽ 49' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
13
V. A. Alcaraz Diaz
9
B. Arce
↑ 87'
M
16
J. Esquivel
D
90
Fabio Gomes
🎯 88' ↑ 72'
F
193
G. Lopez
⚽ 75' ↑ 72' 🟨 90+5'
F
31
A. A. Saavedra Nevarez
20
M. Lainez
↑ 72'
M
28
D. Hernandez
⚽ 88' ↑ 86'
F
27
G. Adame
M
26
A. Leyva
Toluca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
H. Gonzalez
G
2
D. Barbosa
D
3
A. Briseno
⚽ 54'
D
25
E. del Villar
⚽ 45' 🟨 26'
D
17
M. Isais
↓ 81'
D
24
F. Arce
🎯 45'
M
14
M. Ruiz
🟥 60'
M
15
P. Perez
M
29
J. Diaz
↓ 46'
M
9
A. Vega
🎯 54' ↓ 81' 🟨 12'
M
27
F. Rossi
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
22
L. Garcia
G
19
S. Simon
M
206
E. Orta
D
33
V. Arteaga
M
10
J. Angulo
🎯 87' ↑ 46'
M
4
Bruno Mendez
↑ 56'
D
7
S. Cordova
M
8
N. Castro
⚽ 87' ↑ 81'
M
5
F. Romero
M
23
O. Virgen
↑ 81'
F
Last matches: Mazatlán
25.04.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
18.04.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Mazatlán
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
3
L
04.04.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Necaxa
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
16.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Club America
0
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Leon
4
2
W
04.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Atletico San Luis
1
4
L
28.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
CF Pachuca
1
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
1
1
D
15.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
2
1
W
07.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
1
2
L
31.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Atlas
0
1
L
17.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Monterrey
1
5
L
13.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Puebla
1
2
L
10.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
FC Juarez
1
2
L
08.11.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Necaxa
1
1
D
02.11.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
25.10.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Club America
2
2
D
22.10.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
2
2
D
Last matches: Toluca
22.07.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
2
L
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
H2H: Mazatlán vs Toluca
23.04.26
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
4
3
W
28.09.25
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
1
L
25.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
W
05.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
3
L
18.07.24
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
0
L
20.01.24
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
4
1
L
11.11.23
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
0
W
12.03.23
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
4
1
L
17.09.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
2
L
17.08.21
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
2
2
D
07.02.21
H2H
Toluca
Mazatlán
4
1
L
08.08.20
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
W
Last matches: Mazatlán
18.04.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
07.03.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Leon
4
2
W
28.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
CF Pachuca
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
1
2
L
17.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
Monterrey
1
5
L
10.01.26
Lig
Mazatlán
FC Juarez
1
2
L
08.11.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Necaxa
1
1
D
25.10.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Club America
2
2
D
22.10.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Santos Laguna
2
2
D
04.10.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Atletico San Luis
2
1
W
20.09.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Atlas
1
1
D
13.09.25
Lig
Mazatlán
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
4
L
24.08.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Tigres UANL
2
2
D
10.08.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
2
2
D
19.07.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Puebla
2
1
W
17.04.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Club Tijuana
0
2
L
12.04.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Guadalajara Chivas
1
1
D
29.03.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Atlas
3
2
W
01.03.25
Lig
Mazatlán
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mazatlán
23.04.26
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
4
3
W
25.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
W
05.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
3
L
11.11.23
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
0
W
17.09.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
2
L
08.08.20
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
W
Last matches: Toluca
19.07.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Atlante FC
3
3
D
04.07.26
Fri
Toluca
Cancún
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
04.03.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
2
W
22.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Puebla
0
0
D
18.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
11.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
1
0
W
12.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
04.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
0
1
L
27.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
2
1
W
01.11.25
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
0
0
D
23.10.25
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
0
0
D
H2H away: Toluca
23.04.26
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
4
3
L
25.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
L
05.01.25
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
3
W
11.11.23
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
0
L
17.09.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
1
2
W
08.08.20
H2H
Mazatlán
Toluca
2
1
L

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2 17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3 17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6 17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7 17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8 17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9 17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10 17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11 17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12 17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13 17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14 17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15 17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16 17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17 17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18 17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs