ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Etihad Stadium
Referee: A. Taylor
Manchester City
Match Timeline
Arsenal
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
R. Cherki · Assist: M. Nunes
Manchester City
18'
K. Havertz
Arsenal
🟨
36'
Cristhian Mosquera
Arsenal
🔄
46'
N. Madueke ↔ G. Martinelli
Arsenal
🟨
60'
Marc Guéhi
Manchester City
65'
E. Haaland
Manchester City
🔄
74'
C. Mosquera ↔ B. White
Arsenal
🔄
74'
E. Eze ↔ L. Trossard
Arsenal
🟨
83'
Erling Haaland
Manchester City
🟨
83'
Gabriel Magalhães
Arsenal
🔄
84'
M. Zubimendi ↔ V. Gyökeres
Arsenal
🔄
85'
R. Cherki ↔ P. Foden
Manchester City
🔄
88'
Rodri ↔ Nico
Manchester City
🔄
88'
J. Doku ↔ Savinho
Manchester City
🔄
90+6'
A. Semenyo ↔ N. Ake
Manchester City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 66.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 73.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
66.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
73.1%
-
Probability Distribution
Manchester City Win 44.6%
Draw 13%
Arsenal Win 42.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester City1.58
Arsenal1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manchester City Manchester City
WWDLW
98 GF / 44 GA
Arsenal Arsenal
WLDWL
100 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
2.18
Average Goals Scored
2.08
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
0.69
22
BTTS Yes
23
28
Over 2.5
27
5.82
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manchester City Manchester City 45 matches
Arsenal Arsenal 48 matches
Manchester City Statistic Arsenal
28 Wins 34
8 Draws 9
9 Losses 5
98 Goals For 100
44 Goals Against 33
2.18 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 0.69
22 BTTS Yes 23
41 Over 1.5 38
28 Over 2.5 27
13 Over 3.5 15
18 Clean Sheets 24
6 Failed To Score 4
5.82 Shots On Goal 5.48
15.31 Total Shots 15.17
6.04 Corners 6.04
60.3% Ball Possession 56.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Arsenal seem to carry the heavier availability burden, which may reduce some of their stability compared to the home side. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Arsenal. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Arsenal look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Manchester City Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 64 points from 31 games, Manchester City bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 19 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 63:28, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through E. Haaland (22 goals), P. Foden (7 goals), Nico O'Reilly (5 goals), with creative support from R. Cherki (10 assists), E. Haaland (7 assists), B. Silva (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with J. Gvardiol, R. Dias, J. Stones unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Arsenal Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 70 points from 32 games, Arsenal bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 21 wins, 7 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 62:24, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by V. Gyokeres (12 goals), B. Saka (6 goals), E. Eze (6 goals), with creative support from L. Trossard (5 assists), D. Rice (5 assists), Jurriën Timber (5 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. Although they are without M. Merino, B. Saka, J. Timber, that absence is especially important because it affects one of their main scoring outlets.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Manchester City won 9 times, Arsenal won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:15 from Manchester City's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Manchester City 4-2-3-1 / Arsenal 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Manchester City 3, Arsenal 6
H2H summary: Manchester City wins 9, draws 4, Arsenal wins 2
Stats
Manchester City Manchester City
Arsenal Arsenal
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
3
8 Corner Kicks 5
5 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 4
59% Ball Possession 41%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Goal 3
5 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 3
13 Shots insidebox 8
2 Shots outsidebox 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
498 Total passes 348
424 Passes accurate 262
1.36 expected_goals 1.62
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Manchester City
Formation
Arsenal
G. Donnarumma
G. Donnarumma
M. Nunes
🎯
M. Nunes
A. Khusanov
A. Khusanov
M. Guehi
M. Guehi
N. O'Reilly
N. O'Reilly
B. Silva
B. Silva
Rodri
Rodri
A. Semenyo
A. Semenyo
R. Cherki
R. Cherki
J. Doku
J. Doku
E. Haaland
E. Haaland
D. Raya
D. Raya
C. Mosquera
C. Mosquera
W. Saliba
W. Saliba
Gabriel
Gabriel
P. Hincapie
P. Hincapie
M. Odegaard
M. Odegaard
M. Zubimendi
M. Zubimendi
D. Rice
D. Rice
N. Madueke
N. Madueke
K. Havertz
K. Havertz
E. Eze
E. Eze
Manchester City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
G. Donnarumma
G
27
M. Nunes
🎯 16'
D
45
A. Khusanov
D
15
M. Guehi
🟨 60'
D
33
N. O'Reilly
D
20
B. Silva
M
16
Rodri
↓ 88'
M
42
A. Semenyo
↓ 90+6'
M
10
R. Cherki
⚽ 16' ↓ 85'
M
11
J. Doku
↓ 88'
M
9
E. Haaland
⚽ 65' 🟨 83'
F
Substitutes
1
J. Trafford
G
4
T. Reijnders
M
21
R. Ait-Nouri
D
5
J. Stones
D
6
N. Ake
↑ 90+6'
D
47
P. Foden
↑ 85'
M
7
O. Marmoush
F
14
Nico
↑ 88'
M
26
Savinho
↑ 88'
F
Arsenal 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
D. Raya
G
3
C. Mosquera
↓ 74' 🟨 36'
D
2
W. Saliba
D
6
Gabriel
🟨 83'
D
5
P. Hincapie
D
8
M. Odegaard
M
36
M. Zubimendi
↓ 84'
M
41
D. Rice
M
20
N. Madueke
↓ 46'
F
29
K. Havertz
⚽ 18'
F
10
E. Eze
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
13
K. Arrizabalaga
G
9
Gabriel Jesus
F
14
V. Gyökeres
↑ 84'
F
4
B. White
↑ 74'
D
11
G. Martinelli
↑ 46'
F
49
M. Lewis-Skelly
D
56
M. Dowman
M
16
C. Norgaard
M
19
L. Trossard
↑ 74'
F
Last matches: Manchester City
24.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Aston Villa
1
2
L
19.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Bournemouth
1
1
D
16.05.26
FA
Manchester City
Chelsea
1
0
W
13.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Brentford
3
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Everton
3
3
D
25.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Southampton
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
Manchester City
Burnley
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Manchester City
Chelsea
3
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Liverpool
4
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
West Ham
1
1
D
11.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
0
3
L
07.03.26
FA
Manchester City
Newcastle
3
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Leeds
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Newcastle
2
1
W
14.02.26
FA
Manchester City
Salford City
2
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Fulham
3
0
W
08.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Liverpool
2
1
W
Last matches: Arsenal
30.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
18.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Burnley
1
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
West Ham
1
0
W
05.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Fulham
3
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Newcastle
1
0
W
15.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
17.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
2
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Chelsea
2
1
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
H2H: Manchester City vs Arsenal
19.04.26
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
1
W
22.03.26
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
0
2
W
21.09.25
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
1
D
02.02.25
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
5
1
L
22.09.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
0
0
D
08.10.23
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
1
D
26.04.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
4
1
W
15.02.23
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
3
W
27.01.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
1
0
W
01.01.22
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
2
W
28.08.21
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
5
0
W
21.02.21
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
0
1
W
22.12.20
H2H
Arsenal
Manchester City
1
4
W
Last matches: Manchester City
24.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Aston Villa
1
2
L
13.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Crystal Palace
3
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
Manchester City
Brentford
3
0
W
25.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Southampton
2
1
W
04.04.26
FA
Manchester City
Liverpool
4
0
W
17.03.26
UEF
Manchester City
Real Madrid
1
2
L
04.03.26
Pre
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Newcastle
2
1
W
14.02.26
FA
Manchester City
Salford City
2
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Manchester City
Fulham
3
0
W
28.01.26
UEF
Manchester City
Galatasaray
2
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Manchester City
Wolves
2
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Manchester City
Exeter City
10
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Manchester City
Brighton
1
1
D
04.01.26
Pre
Manchester City
Chelsea
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Manchester City
West Ham
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
Manchester City
Sunderland
3
0
W
29.11.25
Pre
Manchester City
Leeds
3
2
W
25.11.25
UEF
Manchester City
Bayer Leverkusen
0
2
L
09.11.25
Pre
Manchester City
Liverpool
3
0
W
H2H at home: Manchester City
19.04.26
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
1
W
22.09.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
0
0
D
26.04.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
4
1
W
27.01.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
1
0
W
28.08.21
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
5
0
W
Last matches: Arsenal
30.05.26
UEF
Arsenal
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
24.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
Crystal Palace
2
1
W
10.05.26
Pre
Arsenal
West Ham
1
0
W
29.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Atletico Madrid
1
1
D
07.04.26
UEF
Arsenal
Sporting CP
1
0
W
04.04.26
FA
Arsenal
Southampton
1
2
L
11.03.26
UEF
Arsenal
Bayer Leverkusen
1
1
D
07.03.26
FA
Arsenal
Mansfield Town
2
1
W
04.03.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brighton
1
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Tottenham
4
1
W
18.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Wolves
2
2
D
12.02.26
Pre
Arsenal
Brentford
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Leeds
4
0
W
20.01.26
UEF
Arsenal
Inter
3
1
W
17.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
11.01.26
FA
Arsenal
Portsmouth
4
1
W
03.01.26
Pre
Arsenal
Bournemouth
3
2
W
20.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Everton
1
0
W
10.12.25
UEF
Arsenal
Club Brugge KV
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
Arsenal
Aston Villa
1
2
L
H2H away: Arsenal
19.04.26
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
1
L
22.09.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
2
2
D
31.03.24
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
0
0
D
26.04.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
4
1
L
27.01.23
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
1
0
L
28.08.21
H2H
Manchester City
Arsenal
5
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Manchester City 3 missing
-
J. Gvardiol
Missing Fixture Broken Leg
OUT
-
R. Dias
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
J. Stones
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
Arsenal 6 missing
-
M. Merino
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
B. Saka
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
J. Timber
Questionable Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Odegaard
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
R. Calafiori
Questionable Knock
OUT
-
N. Madueke
Questionable Injury
OUT