BRAZIL SERIE D
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Estadio Conselheiro Galvao

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 32.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
32.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Madureira Win 73.3%
Draw 18.3%
Pouso Alegre Win 8.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Madureira1.24
Pouso Alegre1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Madureira Madureira
WWDLW
10 GF / 16 GA
Pouso Alegre Pouso Alegre
WLDWL
6 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
6
BTTS Yes
1
5
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Madureira Madureira 9 matches
Pouso Alegre Pouso Alegre 9 matches
Madureira Statistic Pouso Alegre
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
5 Losses 6
10 Goals For 6
16 Goals Against 13
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
6 BTTS Yes 1
7 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 0
2 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Pouso Alegre having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Pouso Alegre. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Madureira Analysis

With 8 points from 9 games and a place of 5, Madureira still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 10:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Joao Carlos (2 goals), M. Fashanu (2 goals), Wallace Camilo (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Pouso Alegre Analysis

With 7 points from 9 games and a place of 6, Pouso Alegre still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 6:13 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Michael Paulista (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Madureira won 0 times, Pouso Alegre won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:2 from Madureira's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.7%)
H2H summary: Madureira wins 0, draws 0, Pouso Alegre wins 1
Last matches: Madureira
30.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Água Santa
1
4
L
23.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
1
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
2
3
L
18.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Água Santa
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Pouso Alegre
0
2
L
Last matches: Pouso Alegre
30.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
3
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
18.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Madureira
2
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
19.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Porto Vitória
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Boavista SC
2
0
W
05.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
2
0
W
04.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
31.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
H2H: Madureira vs Pouso Alegre
04.04.26
H2H
Pouso Alegre
Madureira
2
0
L
Last matches: Madureira
23.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa RJ
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Madureira
Portuguesa
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Madureira
América RJ
2
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Madureira
Água Santa
3
1
W
Last matches: Pouso Alegre
23.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
0
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
América RJ
0
0
D
26.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa RJ
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Porto Vitória
0
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Nova Iguaçu
1
2
L
04.06.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Portuguesa
1
2
L
17.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
03.05.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Boavista SC
0
1
L
19.04.25
Ser
Pouso Alegre
Água Santa
3
2
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 2 1 14:6 8 20
W D W W D
1 8 5 1 2 17:10 7 16
L W W W D
1 9 5 3 1 18:7 11 18
D D W W W
1 9 5 3 1 12:7 5 18
D D D W W
1 9 5 1 3 13:9 4 16
W W L L W
1 9 5 3 1 14:6 8 18
W W D L W
1 9 4 5 0 14:8 6 17
D D W W D
1 9 5 1 3 14:9 5 16
W W W L W
1 9 6 1 2 14:7 7 19
W W L D L
1 9 5 4 0 12:5 7 19
W D W D W
1 9 6 3 0 17:7 10 21
W W D W D
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
W W W W W
1 9 6 2 1 14:6 8 20
W D W W D
1 9 5 3 1 20:9 11 18
W W L W W
1 9 4 5 0 13:7 6 17
D D D W D
1 9 5 3 1 14:7 7 18
D W W D W
2 9 3 5 1 11:7 4 14
D W L D W
2 9 4 3 2 10:6 4 15
D D W W L
2 9 3 3 3 10:8 2 12
?
2 9 4 4 1 13:6 7 16
W D W D D
2 9 5 2 2 16:7 9 17
W W D D W
2 9 3 3 3 11:7 4 12
D L W W W
2 9 4 3 2 9:3 6 15
D W L W D
2 8 4 3 1 9:4 5 15
D W W W L
2 9 5 2 2 12:8 4 17
D W L W D
2 9 4 3 2 22:9 13 15
L D L W W
2 9 3 3 3 11:10 1 12
D L D W D
2 9 4 4 1 12:7 5 16
D D L D W
2 9 5 2 2 17:13 4 17
L W W L W
2 9 4 4 1 10:6 4 16
W W D D D
2 9 3 5 1 12:8 4 14
D W D L D
2 9 5 3 1 12:3 9 18
W D W D D
3 9 4 2 3 14:12 2 14
L L D W W
3 9 4 2 3 11:9 2 14
D D L L L
3 9 3 3 3 6:6 0 12
L D W D W
3 9 4 2 3 12:8 4 14
D W D W L
3 9 3 5 1 14:7 7 14
D D W D L
3 9 3 3 3 8:9 -1 12
W D L L D
3 9 4 3 2 9:5 4 15
W D L L D
3 9 3 3 3 3:4 -1 12
L D L D W
3 9 3 4 2 10:6 4 13
W D L L D
3 9 4 3 2 20:9 11 15
W D D W D
3 9 3 3 3 9:11 -2 12
D L W W W
3 9 2 5 2 9:8 1 11
D D W L D
3 9 3 4 2 14:13 1 13
W D W L D
3 9 3 4 2 12:5 7 13
W W W D L
3 9 4 2 3 12:10 2 14
W L W D L
3 8 2 4 2 6:4 2 10
D D D D L
4 9 2 4 3 6:6 0 10
L D D L D
4 9 2 4 3 13:15 -2 10
W D D D L
4 9 3 3 3 11:13 -2 12
D D W W L
4 9 3 3 3 8:11 -3 12
D L L D D
4 9 2 4 3 10:12 -2 10
L L D D D
4 9 2 3 4 10:21 -11 9
D L W L D
4 9 3 2 4 8:11 -3 11
W D L L L
4 9 4 1 4 8:8 0 13
L D W L W
4 9 2 4 3 5:8 -3 10
W D D W D
4 9 2 4 3 10:11 -1 10
L D W W D
4 9 4 2 3 15:8 7 14
W W W L D
4 9 3 3 3 7:10 -3 12
D W L L L
4 9 3 2 4 8:9 -1 11
D W L L W
4 9 3 3 3 11:10 1 12
W L L W L
4 9 3 2 4 10:13 -3 11
D L L W W
4 9 2 4 3 9:8 1 10
D W D W L
5 8 3 1 4 4:7 -3 10
D L W W L
5 9 2 3 4 10:15 -5 9
D D W L L
5 9 2 3 4 10:16 -6 9
D D L L W
5 9 2 3 4 8:10 -2 9
W L W L L
5 9 3 1 5 9:17 -8 10
L L D L W
5 9 2 2 5 10:16 -6 8
L D L W L
5 9 2 4 3 7:9 -2 10
L D L D D
5 9 3 3 3 8:8 0 12
D L W W L
5 9 2 3 4 8:11 -3 9
L D D L L
5 9 2 4 3 7:10 -3 10
D D W L D
5 9 3 1 5 14:22 -8 10
L L W L D
5 9 2 5 2 9:9 0 11
D W L L D
5 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D L W D L
5 9 2 3 4 11:17 -6 9
L L W W D
5 9 2 3 4 8:14 -6 9
L L D L W
5 9 2 2 5 6:13 -7 8
D L L L W
6 9 0 2 7 2:18 -16 2
L D L L L
6 8 2 1 5 9:15 -6 7
W L L L W
6 9 1 2 6 4:13 -9 5
D D L L W
6 9 2 3 4 7:9 -2 9
W W L D D
6 9 1 4 4 6:11 -5 7
D D D W L
6 9 2 1 6 6:13 -7 7
L L L W D
6 9 2 3 4 6:10 -4 9
L W W D D
6 9 1 1 7 2:17 -15 4
L L L W L
6 8 1 2 5 5:10 -5 5
L W L D L
6 9 0 2 7 5:16 -11 2
L L L D L
6 9 0 0 9 4:37 -33 0
L L L L L
6 9 0 1 8 3:16 -13 1
L L D L L
6 9 1 2 6 7:15 -8 5
L D L W L
6 9 1 1 7 11:22 -11 4
L D L L L
6 9 0 4 5 10:18 -8 4
L D D L L
6 9 1 4 4 4:11 -7 7
L L L W D