UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Lugazi FC Stadium
Lugazi
Match Timeline
Maroons
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
89'
D. Niwamanya
Maroons

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 97.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
97.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lugazi Win 2.4%
Draw 0%
Maroons Win 97.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lugazi0.77
Maroons1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lugazi Lugazi
WWDLW
19 GF / 35 GA
Maroons Maroons
WLDWL
25 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
0.66
Average Goals Scored
0.86
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
9
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lugazi Lugazi 29 matches
Maroons Maroons 29 matches
Lugazi Statistic Maroons
5 Wins 8
10 Draws 11
14 Losses 10
19 Goals For 25
35 Goals Against 27
0.66 Avg Goals Scored 0.86
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
9 BTTS Yes 9
16 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 12
18 Failed To Score 14
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Maroons. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maroons having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Lugazi Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Lugazi have collected 25 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 14 losses, while the 19:35 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on F. Mungudit (5 goals), A. Kalanzi (3 goals), A. Mulindi (2 goals), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Maroons Analysis

So far, Maroons have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 35 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 25:27 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by I. Mayanja (5 goals), I. Asaba (4 goals), R. Walugembe (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Lugazi won 0 times, Maroons won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:6 from Lugazi's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Lugazi wins 0, draws 0, Maroons wins 4
Last matches: Lugazi
19.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
Last matches: Maroons
19.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
0
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Police
3
1
W
21.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Maroons
NEC
0
1
L
08.04.26
Pre
Maroons
BUL
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
07.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
12.02.26
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
1
1
D
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Express
4
0
W
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
H2H: Lugazi vs Maroons
23.05.26
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
25.11.25
H2H
Maroons
Lugazi
3
0
L
28.03.25
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
06.10.24
H2H
Maroons
Lugazi
1
0
L
Last matches: Lugazi
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
22.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
08.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
5
2
W
22.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
3
1
W
H2H at home: Lugazi
23.05.26
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
28.03.25
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
Last matches: Maroons
07.05.26
Pre
Maroons
KCCA
0
3
L
28.04.26
Pre
Maroons
URA
2
2
D
21.04.26
Pre
Maroons
Mbarara City
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Maroons
NEC
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Calvary
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Maroons
Express
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pre
Maroons
SC Villa
0
2
L
27.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Entebbe UPPC
0
0
D
06.01.26
Pre
Maroons
Buhimba Saints
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Maroons
Kitara
0
2
L
22.11.25
Pre
Maroons
Vipers
1
2
L
29.10.25
Pre
Maroons
Police
1
2
L
15.10.25
Pre
Maroons
UPDF
2
1
W
01.10.25
Pre
Maroons
BUL
0
1
L
H2H away: Maroons
23.05.26
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
W
28.03.25
H2H
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League