30.04.2026 02:30
BMO Stadium
Referee: I. A. Cornejo Melendez
Los Angeles FC
Match Timeline
Toluca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
51'
T. Tillman · Assist: Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC
VAR
57'
Jacob Shaffelburg
Los Angeles FC
🔄
64'
Helinho ↔ D. Barbosa
Toluca
🔄
67'
A. Long ↔ K. Nielsen
Los Angeles FC
🟨
69'
Ryan Porteous
Los Angeles FC
73'
J. Angulo · Assist: Paulinho
Toluca
🟨
74'
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
Toluca
🔄
80'
M. Choiniere ↔ S. Eustaquio
Los Angeles FC
🔄
80'
D. Martinez ↔ J. Ebobisse
Los Angeles FC
🔄
80'
J. Angulo ↔ A. Vega
Toluca
🔄
88'
Paulinho ↔ F. Arce
Toluca
🔄
89'
M. Ruiz ↔ J. Diaz
Toluca
🟨
90+6'
Jacob Shaffelburg
Los Angeles FC
🟨
90'
Diego Barbosa
Toluca
90'
Nkosi Tafari · Assist: Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC vs Toluca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Los Angeles FC Win 75.8%
Draw 0%
Toluca Win 24.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC1.6
Toluca2.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
WWDLW
35 GF / 13 GA
Toluca Toluca
WLDWL
13 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.84
Average Goals Scored
3.25
0.68
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
8
BTTS Yes
2
8
Over 2.5
4
5
Shots on Goal
7

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 19 matches
Toluca Toluca 4 matches
Los Angeles FC Statistic Toluca
11 Wins 3
6 Draws 0
2 Losses 1
35 Goals For 13
13 Goals Against 5
1.84 Avg Goals Scored 3.25
0.68 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
8 BTTS Yes 2
13 Over 1.5 4
8 Over 2.5 4
4 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 0
5 Shots On Goal 7
13.19 Total Shots 19
5.44 Corners 4.5
47.8% Ball Possession 59.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles FC won 2 times, Toluca won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Los Angeles FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Los Angeles FC 3-4-2-1 / Toluca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Los Angeles FC wins 2, draws 0, Toluca wins 1