12.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega

Cusco vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.9%
Odds 1.89
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.75
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.9%
1.89
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.75
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.5%
1.36
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Cusco Win 53.9%
Draw 8.5%
FBC Melgar Win 37.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Cusco1.24
FBC Melgar1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Cusco Cusco
WWDLW
43 GF / 49 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
50 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
20
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
17
4.39
Shots on Goal
4.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Cusco Cusco 32 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 30 matches
Cusco Statistic FBC Melgar
13 Wins 14
5 Draws 8
14 Losses 8
43 Goals For 50
49 Goals Against 33
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
20 BTTS Yes 19
25 Over 1.5 25
18 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 5
4.39 Shots On Goal 4.88
11.94 Total Shots 15.08
3.71 Corners 5
55.3% Ball Possession 55.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and FBC Melgar's more proactive style and Cusco's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Cusco expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FBC Melgar. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Cusco Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Cusco have collected 39 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 36:36 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Facundo Callejo (5 goals), Iván Colman (3 goals), José Miguel Manzaneda (2 goals), with creative support from Lucas Colitto (4 assists), Facundo Callejo (2 assists), Iván Colman (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBC Melgar Analysis

So far, FBC Melgar have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 39 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 40:28 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Vidales (8 goals), B. Cuesta (5 goals), N. Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (7 assists), B. Cuesta (3 assists), Matias Zegarra (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Cusco won 6 times, FBC Melgar won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:14 from Cusco's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.5%)
Predicted formations: Cusco 4-1-4-1 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Cusco wins 6, draws 3, FBC Melgar wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 6 1 1 14:5 9 19
W W W D W
2 8 5 2 1 17:11 6 17
D W W W D
3 8 5 1 2 17:13 4 16
W W W D W
4
Cusco Home
8 5 0 3 17:12 5 15
W W L W L
5 8 4 2 2 14:8 6 14
W L D W L
6 8 4 2 2 12:6 6 14
L W W D D
7 8 4 1 3 15:8 7 13
W L L W D
8 8 3 4 1 11:8 3 13
D L D W D
9 8 4 1 3 12:11 1 13
W W L L D
10 8 4 1 3 10:9 1 13
L W W W D
11 8 3 3 2 14:11 3 12
D W W L D
12 8 2 3 3 16:15 1 9
D L W L W
13 8 2 1 5 10:15 -5 7
W L L D L
14 8 1 4 3 6:11 -5 7
L L W D L
15 8 2 1 5 15:21 -6 7
L W L L W
16 8 2 1 5 9:21 -12 7
L L L L D
17 8 0 2 6 8:19 -11 2
L L L L D
18 8 0 2 6 5:18 -13 2
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)