🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
16.08.2026 02:30
BMO Stadium
Referee: I. Elfath
Los Angeles FC
Match Timeline
San Diego
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
21'
Denis Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
🟨
29'
Alejandro Alvarado Jr
San Diego
🔄
53'
L. Morgan ↔ E. Achouri
San Diego
🟨
62'
Eddie Segura
Los Angeles FC
🔄
65'
T. Tillman ↔ M. Choiniere
Los Angeles FC
🔄
65'
T. Boyd ↔ J. Shaffelburg
Los Angeles FC
🔄
73'
Gabriel Pirani ↔ O. Valakari
San Diego
🔄
73'
A. Alvarado Jr ↔ J. Tverskov
San Diego
🟨
75'
Onni Valakari
San Diego
🟨
80'
Mark Delgado
Los Angeles FC
🟨
84'
Mathieu Choinière
Los Angeles FC
🔄
85'
I. Murphy ↔ C. McVey
San Diego
🔄
85'
M. Ingvartsen ↔ A. Pellegrino
San Diego
VAR
88'
Jeppe Tverskov
San Diego
89'
A. Dreyer
San Diego
🟨
90+7'
Son Heung-min
Los Angeles FC
🟨
90+6'
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
🟨
90'
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
🟥
90+6'
Anders Dreyer
San Diego
🔄
90'
R. Hollingshead ↔ R. Raposo
Los Angeles FC
🔄
90'
E. Segura ↔ J. Ebobisse
Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles FC vs San Diego Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Los Angeles FC Win 83.6%
Draw 4.6%
San Diego Win 11.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Los Angeles FC1.77
San Diego1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC
WWDLW
58 GF / 31 GA
San Diego San Diego
WLDWL
41 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
15
BTTS Yes
12
18
Over 2.5
14
4.56
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 31 matches
San Diego San Diego 23 matches
Los Angeles FC Statistic San Diego
17 Wins 8
8 Draws 6
6 Losses 9
58 Goals For 41
31 Goals Against 37
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
15 BTTS Yes 12
24 Over 1.5 18
18 Over 2.5 14
10 Over 3.5 11
15 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 5
4.56 Shots On Goal 4.36
12.74 Total Shots 11.45
5.37 Corners 4.64
46.6% Ball Possession 59.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward San Diego. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Los Angeles FC come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Los Angeles FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 34 points compared to San Diego in 13 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Los Angeles FC Analysis

Los Angeles FC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 34 points after 19 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 35:19 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Denis Bouanga (9 goals), David Martínez Morales (4 goals), Son Heung-min (3 goals), with creative support from Son Heung-min (6 assists), Denis Bouanga (2 assists), Tyler Boyd (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

San Diego Analysis

So far, San Diego have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 21 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses, while the 32:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marcus Ingvartsen (7 goals), Anders Dreyer (3 goals), David Vazquez (3 goals), with creative support from Anders Dreyer (4 assists), Pedro Soma (2 assists), Onni Valakari (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Los Angeles FC won 0 times, San Diego won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from Los Angeles FC's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.4%)
Predicted formations: Los Angeles FC 4-3-3 / San Diego 4-3-3
Missing players: Los Angeles FC 2, San Diego 2
H2H summary: Los Angeles FC wins 0, draws 1, San Diego wins 3

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)